000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120311 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Oct 12 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Pamela is centered near 17.9N 108.9W at 12/0300 UTC moving NNW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Max seas are up to 25 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 270 nm of the center. Pamela will turn toward the N late tonight into Tue, followed by a faster NE motion Tue night. Pamela will pass south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula Tue night and make landfall in Sinaloa Wed morning. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast, and Pamela is expected to become a hurricane overnight or early Tue and may become a major hurricane before it reaches the coast of Mexico. Pamela could bring life- threatening storm surge, flash flooding, and dangerous winds to portions of west- central mainland Mexico. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory and Forecast/Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Northern Gulf of California Gale Warning: A cold front moving SE through the area will bring gale force winds tonight over the northern Gulf of California, ahead of and behind the front, with seas building to 7 to 10 ft. Conditions will improve around sunrise Tue morning as the cold front continues moving southeastward and weakens. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 88W, N of 09N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. A 1009 mb low pressure is centered in association with this wave where it meets the monsoon trough, near 09N89W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 82W and 92W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from southern Costa Rica near 08N84W to 14N98W. It resumes from 15N113W to 11N130W. The ITCZ continues from 11N130W to beyond 10N140W. Convection along the monsoon trough is primarily associated with the tropical wave depicted in the Tropical Waves section above. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Pamela and on the Gale Warning in the northern Gulf of California. Elsewhere, strong high pressure of 1038 mb centered near 39N141W is supporting fresh to strong NW winds offshore Baja California Norte. Seas will build to 12 to 15 ft in northerly swell tonight offshore Baja California Norte. Winds and waves will also increase west of Baja California Sur, but not quite as strong as farther north. Rough seas will continue into late week offshore Baja California and west-central Mexico through mid-week due to the combination of the cold front and Pamela. Seas will subside by the end of the week. Meanwhile, gentle NW winds and 5 to 7 ft seas will prevail elsewhere off southern Mexico. Pamela will strengthen to a hurricane near 19.2N 109.1W Tue morning, then move to 21.0N 108.5W Tue evening. Hurricane Pamela will be near 23.1N 106.9W Wed morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 26.1N 103.3W Wed evening, then weaken to a tropical depression near 29.5N 99.5W Thu morning. Pamela will dissipate Thu evening. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle mainly N winds prevail N of the monsoon trough, with moderate SW winds to the S. Seas are 4 to 6 ft, except for 7 ft offshore Ecuador, due to a moderate southwest swell. A 1009 mb low pressure center is along the monsoon trough near 09N89W. For the forecast, light to gentle mainly N winds will prevail N of the monsoon trough into the weekend, with moderate SW winds to the S of the monsoon trough. A moderate southwest swell propagating through the regional waters will subside slightly later this week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Pamela. High pressure of 1038 mb is centered near 39N141W. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure of the ITCZ and monsoon trough is supporting fresh to strong winds, and seas of 8 to 11 ft, north of the ITCZ and W of 125W. Within the area north of 25N and east of 128W, strong to locally near gale force NW to N winds will prevail through tonight. Seas will build to 12 to 16 ft there and prevail through Tue before gradually diminishing mid to late week. Mainly moderate winds and seas in the 5 to 8 ft range prevail elsewhere. $$ KONARIK