000 AXPZ20 KNHC 112158 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Oct 11 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2110 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Pamela is centered near 17.2N 108.5W at 11/2100 UTC moving NW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Max seas are up to 23 ft. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted within 270 nm of the center. Pamela will turn toward the N late tonight into Tue, followed by a faster NE motion Tue night. Pamela will pass south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula Tue night or early Wed and make landfall on west-central mainland Mexico Wed morning. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast, and Pamela is expected to become a hurricane overnight and a major hurricane before it reaches the coast of Mexico. Pamela could bring life-threatening storm surge, flash flooding, and dangerous winds to portions of west- central mainland Mexico. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory and Forecast/Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Northern Gulf of California Gale Warning: A cold front north of the area will move SE through the northern Gulf of California tonight. Gale force winds are expected for several hours tonight over the northern Gulf of California, ahead of and behind the front, with seas building to 7 to 10 ft. Conditions will improve around sunrise Tue morning as the cold front continues moving southeastward and weakens. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 85/86W north of 08N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is along and within 150 nm E of the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the Panama/Costa Rica border near 08N83W to 1009 mb low pressure near 09N89W to 14N96W. It resumes from 15N113W to 11N130W. The ITCZ continues from 11N130W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 14N east of 100W and from 09N to 17N between 114W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Pamela and on the Gale Warning in the northern Gulf of California. Elsewhere, strong high pressure of 1038 mb centered near 39N141W is supporting fresh NW winds. However, the winds will increase to strong this evening through tonight west of Baja California Norte as a cold front pushes through the area. The same front will bring gale force winds tonight to the northern Gulf of California. Seas will build to 12 to 15 ft in northerly swell tonight offshore Baja California Norte. Winds and waves will also increase west of Baja California Sur, but not quite as strong as farther north. Rough seas will continue offshore Baja California and west-central Mexico through mid-week due to the combination of the cold front and Pamela. Seas will subside late this week. Meanwhile, gentle NW to N winds and 5 to 6 ft seas will prevail elsewhere off southern Mexico. Pamela will strengthen to a hurricane tonight near 18N109W, and strengthen to a major hurricane Tue night near 22N108W. Hurricane Pamela will move inland, then weaken to a tropical storm Wed near 24N106W and become a remnant low Wed night near 27N102W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle mainly N winds prevail N of the monsoon trough, with moderate SW winds to the S. Seas are 4 to 6 ft, except for 7 ft offshore Ecuador, due to a moderate southwest swell. A 1009 mb low pressure center is along the monsoon trough near 09N89W. For the forecast, mainly gentle NW winds will prevail N of the monsoon trough this week, with moderate SW winds to the S of the monsoon trough. A moderate southwest swell propagating through the regional waters will subside slightly later this week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Pamela. High pressure of 1038 mb is centered near 39N141W. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure of the ITCZ and monsoon trough is supporting fresh to strong winds, and seas of 8 to 11 ft, north of the ITCZ and W of 125W. Within the area north of 25N and east of 128W, strong to locally near gale force NW to N winds will prevail through tonight. Seas will build to 12 to 16 ft there and prevail through Tue before gradually diminishing mid to late week. Mainly moderate winds and seas in the 5 to 8 ft range prevail elsewhere. $$ Hagen