342 AXPZ20 KNHC 111602 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Oct 11 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1510 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Pamela is centered near 16.8N 108.1W at 11/1500 UTC moving NW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Max seas are up to 20 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm of the center NE quadrant, 180 nm SE quadrant and 210 nm W semicircle. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 12.5N to 21N between 104.5W and 112W. Pamela will continue moving NW today, before turning N tonight into Tue. A faster NE motion is expected by Tue night, when Pamela is expected to pass south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Pamela should make landfall on west-central mainland Mexico Wed morning. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast, and Pamela is expected to become a hurricane by tonight and a major hurricane before it reaches the coast of Mexico. Pamela could bring life-threatening storm surge, flash flooding, and dangerous winds to portions of west-central mainland Mexico. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory and Forecast/Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 09N84W to 1009 mb low pressure near 09N88W to 11N98W. It resumes from 14N112W to 12N130W. The ITCZ continues from 12N130W to 12N135W, then resumes from 11N137W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 82W and 98W and from 10N to 16N between 116W and 139W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Pamela. Elsewhere, high pressure ridging prevails W of Baja California, supporting fresh NW winds. Light to gentle winds are occurring in the Gulf of California and offshore southern Mexico. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft W of Baja California, and off southern Mexico, and 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Pamela will strengthen to a hurricane this evening near 19N109W, and strengthen to a major hurricane Tue evening near 21N109W. Hurricane Pamela will be near 23N107W Wed morning, then weaken after moving inland to near 26N105W Wed evening. Strong N winds will move into the waters west of Baja California Norte late this afternoon and evening, and persist into Tue. Seas W of Baja California Norte will build to 12 to 15 ft in northerly swell combined with wind waves. Winds and waves will also increase west of Baja California Sur, but not quite as strong as farther north. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle mainly N winds prevail N of the monsoon trough, with moderate SW winds to the S. Seas are 4 to 6 ft, except for 7 ft offshore Ecuador. A 1009 mb low pressure center is along the monsoon trough near 09N88W. For the forecast, mainly gentle NW winds will prevail N of the monsoon trough into mid week, with gentle to moderate SW winds to the S. A moderate southwest swell will propagate through the regional waters during the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Pamela. High pressure of 1038 mb is centered near 41N140W. The associated ridge extends ESE across the northern waters. A surface trough is noted from 07N137W to 15N134W. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure of the ITCZ and monsoon trough is supporting fresh to strong winds, and seas of 8 to 11 ft, north of the ITCZ and W of 125W. Mainly moderate winds and seas in the 5 to 8 ft range prevail elsewhere. Strong N winds are spreading into the waters north of 25N and east of 130W now. These winds will continue to spread over the area into Tue, bringing seas of 12 to 16 ft. Southerly swell south of 05N and west of 90W has diminished to below 8 ft. $$ Hagen