000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110900 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Oct 11 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Pamela is centered near 16.2N 107.6W at 11/0900 UTC moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Max seas are up to 18 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm of the center S semicircle and 60 nm N semicircle. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 11N to 21N between 101W and 111W. Pamela will continue moving WNW to NW today, before turning N tonight. On Tue, a faster motion to the NE is expected to commence. Warm ocean temperatures and weak wind shear aloft should lead to more rapid strengthening, and Pamela is forecast to become a hurricane tonight. Pamela is expected to pass S of the southern tip of Baja California Tue night and become a major hurricane. Hurricane Pamela is then forecast to reach the Sinaloa coast Wed. Pamela could bring life- threatening storm surge, flash flooding, and dangerous winds portions of west-central mainland Mexico. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 10N85W to 12N97W. It resumes from 14N110W to 11N123W. The ITCZ continues from 11N123W to 14N139W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 12N E of 97W and from 09N to 15N between 114W and 129W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Pamela. Fuego Volcano in Guatemala near 14.N90.9W is in a state of unrest and could erupt with little notice. Mariners offshore of Chiapas should use caution and monitor for future eruptions. If mariners encounter volcanic ash or floating volcanic debris...you are encouraged to report the observation to the National Hurricane Center by calling 305-229-4424. Elsewhere, weak high pressure prevails W of Baja California, supporting moderate to NW winds. Light to gentle winds are occurring elsewhere offshore Mexico. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft W of Baja California, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Pamela is near 16.2N 107.6W 1002 mb at 2 AM PDT moving WNW at 10 kt. Maximum sustained are winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt. Pamela will move to 16.9N 108.5W this afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 18.2N 109.4W Tue morning, then reach 19.9N 109.3W Tue afternoon. Hurricane Pamela will be near 21.8N 108.3W Wed morning, 24.2N 106.4W Wed afternoon, then move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 26.9N 103.3W Thu morning. Pamela will dissipate early Fri. A dissipating cold front will bring strong N winds W of Baja California and in the northern Gulf of California this evening into Tue. Seas W of Baja California Norte will build to 12 to 15 kt in northerly swell combined with wind waves. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fuego Volcano in Guatemala near 14.N90.9W is in a state of unrest and could erupt with little notice. Mariners offshore of Guatemala should use caution and monitor for future eruptions. If mariners encounter volcanic ash or floating volcanic debris...you are encouraged to report the observation to the National Hurricane Center by calling 305-229-4424. Elsewhere, gentle mainly N winds prevail N of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate SW winds to the S. Seas are 4 to 6 ft, except for 7 ft offshore Ecuador. For the forecast, mainly gentle NW winds will prevail N of the monsoon trough into mid week, with gentle to moderate SW winds to the S. A moderate southwest swell will propagate through the regional waters during the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Pamela. High pressure of 1041 mb is centered near 44N145W. Associated ridge extends ESE across the northern waters. A surface trough that had been near 20N140W has moved west of the area while weakening. Another surface trough is noted 11N126W to 08N139W. Also, a 1011 mb low pressure center has formed along the ITCZ and monsoon trough, near 12N119W. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure of the ITCZ and monsoon trough is supporting fresh to strong winds, and seas of 8 to 11 ft, north of the ITCZ and W of 125W. Mainly moderate winds and seas in the 5 to 8 ft range prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, a dissipating cold front will spread S across waters W of Baja California today, bringing strong N winds and seas of up to 12 ft N of 23N into midweek. With high pressure continuing to prevail over northern waters, fresh to strong trade winds will continue N of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and W of 120W through Tue. Southerly swell will maintain seas greater than 8 ft south of 05N and west of 90W through today. $$ KONARIK