586 AXPZ20 KNHC 110301 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Oct 11 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Pamela is centered near 15.9N 106.8W at 11/0300 UTC moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Max seas are up to 13 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 90 nm of the center S semicircle and 30 nm N semicircle. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 10N to 19N between 100W and 111W. Pamela is forecast to continue moving WNW into Mon, then turn N and eventually NE and accelerate starting Mon night. Warm ocean temperatures and lessening shear should lead to more rapid strengthening, and Pamela is forecast to become a hurricane by Mon night. Pamela is expected to pass just S of the southern tip of Baja California Tue night, and it is likely to become a major hurricane before reaching the Sinaloa coast late Wed. Pamela could bring life- threatening storm surge, flash flooding, and dangerous winds portions of west-central mainland Mexico. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. There is an Ashfall Advisory offshore and downstream of Guatemala, mainly from 13N to 14N, E of 93W. Fuego volcano at 14.5N90.9W is currently in a state of unrest with frequent volcanic emissions. Mariners traveling in the vicinity of Fuego are urged to exercise caution. If mariners encounter volcanic ash or floating volcanic debris...you are encouraged to report the observation to the National Hurricane Center by calling 305-229-4424. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 10N85W to 13N100W. It resumes from from 14N109W to 10N123W. The ITCZ continues from 10N123W to 13N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 11N E of 95W and from 09N to 14N between 112W and 126W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Pamela, and an Ashfall Advisory downstream of Guatemala. Elsewhere, high pressure prevails W of Baja California, supporting fresh NW winds. Gentle to moderate NW winds are also occurring in the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds are occurring elsewhere offshore Mexico. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft W of Baja California, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Pamela is near 15.9N 106.8W 1002 mb at 8 PM PDT moving WNW at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt gusts 55 kt. Pamela will move to 16.5N 108.2W Mon morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 17.6N 109.3W Mon evening, then reach 19.0N 109.8W Tue morning. Hurricane Pamela will be at 20.7N 109.4W Tue evening, 22.8N 108.0W Wed morning, the move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 25.5N 106.0W Wed evening. Pamela will dissipate late Thu. There is an ashfall advisory offshore and downstream of Guatemala, including areas offshore southern Mexico N of 14N and E of 93W. Fuego Volcano at 14.5N90.9W is currently in a state of unrest with frequent volcanic emissions. Mariners traveling in the vicinity of Fuego are urged to exercise caution. If mariners encounter volcanic ash or floating volcanic debris...you are encouraged to report the observation to the National Hurricane Center by calling 305-229-4424. Elsewhere, seas will build to over 12 ft offshore Baja California Mon and Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see Special Features section above for more information on an Ashfall Advisory offshore and downstream of Guatemala. Elsewhere, gentle mainly N winds prevail N of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate SW winds to the S. Seas are 4 to 6 ft, except for 7 ft offshore Ecuador. For the forecast, mainly gentle NW winds will prevail N of the monsoon trough into mid week, with gentle to moderate SW winds to the S. A moderate southwest swell will propagate through the regional waters during the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Pamela. High pressure of 1041 mb is centered near 44N145W. Associated ridge extends ESE across the northern waters. A surface trough extends from 23N137W to 16N140W. Another surface trough has formed S of the ITCZ from 10N125W to 08N139W. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure within ITCZ and nearby troughs is supporting fresh to strong winds, and seas of 8 to 12 ft, north of the ITCZ and west of 125W. Mainly moderate winds and seas in the 5 to 8 ft range prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure will continue to prevail over the northern waters. This will support fresh to strong trade- winds north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W through Tue. Southerly swell will maintain seas greater than 8 ft south of 05N and west of 90W through Mon. A weakening cold front will spread S across waters W of Baja California Mon, bringing increased winds and seas to areas N of 23N into midweek. $$ KONARIK