000 AXPZ20 KNHC 101503 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Oct 10 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Sixteen-E is centered near 14.8N 104.7W at 10/1500 UTC moving WNW at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas are up to 11 ft. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted within 60 nm of the center. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 10N to 18N between 100W and 110W. Sixteen-E is forecast to remain on a WNW track through tonight, then turn north Monday through Tuesday night, with a northeastward motion expected by Wednesday. Strengthening is forecast due to quite favorable environmental conditions, and Sixteen-E is likely to become a tropical storm later today, and may become a hurricane by Mon night. The tropical cyclone is forecast to be at or near major hurricane intensity when it reaches the coast of west- central mainland Mexico by late Wednesday or early Thursday, and could bring life- threatening storm surge, flash flooding, and dangerous winds to a portion of that area. Large swell and dangerous rip currents will also spread to these areas mid-week. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 13N100W. It resumes from 14N106W to 10N126W. The ITCZ continues from 10N126W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N E of 93W, from 10N to 15N between 95W and 100W, and from 08N to 11N between 110W and 120W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Sixteen-E. Elsewhere, high pressure prevails west of the Baja California peninsula. This is supporting fresh to locally strong NW winds over the waters W of Baja California, with the highest winds near the coast of Baja California Norte. Gentle to moderate NW winds are also occurring in the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds are occurring elsewhere offshore Mexico. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft W of Baja California, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, Tropical Depression Sixteen-E near 14.8N 104.7W 1006 mb at 8 AM PDT moving WNW at 16 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Sixteen-E will strengthen to a tropical storm near 15.4N 106.6W this evening, move to 16.0N 108.2W Mon morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 17.1N 109.4W Mon evening, 18.4N 110.0W Tue morning, 19.9N 109.9W Tue evening, and 21.8N 109.0W Wed morning. Sixteen-E will weaken to a tropical storm while moving inland over Mexico near 26.3N 105.5W early Thu. Elsewhere, building high pressure will strengthen winds both W of Baja California Norte and in the northern Gulf of California Mon into Tue. Seas will build to over 12 ft offshore Baja California during this time. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the area, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. For the forecast, mainly gentle NW winds will prevail N of the monsoon trough into mid week, with gentle to moderate SW winds to the S. A moderate southwest swell will propagate through the regional waters during the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1040 mb is centered near 44N145W. Associated ridge extends ESE across the northern waters. A surface trough extends from 21N137W to 12N137W. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting fresh to strong winds, and seas of 8 to 11 ft, north of the monsoon trough and west of 125W. Mainly moderate winds and seas in the 5 to 8 ft range prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure will continue to prevail over the northern waters. This will support fresh to strong trade- winds north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W into Tue. Southerly swell will maintain seas greater than 8 ft south of 05N and west of 90W through early this week. A weakening cold front is likely to spread S across waters W of Baja California Mon, bringing increased winds and seas to areas N of 23N. $$ AL