130 AXPZ20 KNHC 100912 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Oct 10 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Newly-formed Tropical Depression Sixteen-E is centered near 14.3N 102.9W at 10/0900 UTC moving WNW at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas are up to 11 ft. A broad area of numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 09N to 17N between 93W and 106W. The Gale Warning previously in effect has been replaced with a Tropical Storm Warning. Sixteen-E is expected to turn to the NW then NNW over the next 48 to 72 hours, then veer N and NNE and approach the coast of Mexico in 96 hours. Strengthening is forecast due to quite favorable environmental conditions, and Sixteen-E is likely to become a tropical storm later today, and may become a hurricane by Mon night. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 104W, N of 05N. This wave will be absorbed by newly-formed Tropical Depression Sixteen-E later today. See Special Features section above for information on conditions associated with and forecasts for Sixteen-E. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 11N111W to 1010 mb low pressure near 13N136W to 10N140W. Aside from convection mentioned in the Special Features section above, scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 09N east of 91W from 07N to 17N between 106W and 131W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section above for details on newly- formed Tropical Depression Sixteen-E. High pressure prevails west of the Baja California peninsula. This is supporting fresh to locally strong NW winds over the waters W of Baja California, with the highest winds near the coast of Baja California Norte. Gentle to moderate NW winds are also occurring in the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds are occurring elsewhere offshore Mexico. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft W of Baja California, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, Tropical Depression Sixteen-E has formed near 14.3N 102.9W 1006 mb at 2 AM PDT moving WNW at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Sixteen-E will strengthen to a tropical storm near 15.1N 105.0W this afternoon, move to 15.8N 107.2W Mon morning, then reach 16.6N 108.6W Mon afternoon. Sixteen-E is expected to become a hurricane near 17.8N 109.6W Tue morning, 19.0N 109.8W Tue afternoon, then reach 20.7N 109.4W Wed morning. Sixteen-E will move inland over Mexico early Thu. Elsewhere, a surge of high pressure will likely lead to strong winds both W of Baja California Norte and in the northern Gulf of California Mon into Tue. Seas of over 12 ft may also follow this second surge offshore Baja California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the area, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. For the forecast, mainly gentle NW winds will prevail N of the monsoon trough into mid week, with gentle to moderate SW winds to the S. A moderate southwest swell will propagate through the regional waters during the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above details on newly-formed Tropical Depression Sixteen-E. High pressure of 1034 mb is centered near 38N150W. Associated ridge extends ESE across the northern waters. A surface trough extends from 19N135W to 14N135W. This trough has a low pressure centered at the southern end, near the monsoon trough axis, at 13N136W. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and these areas of low pressure is supporting fresh to strong winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft, north of the monsoon trough and west of 125W. Mainly moderate winds and seas in the 5 to 8 ft range prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure will continue to prevail over the northern waters. This will support fresh to strong trade- winds north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W into Tue. Southerly swell will maintain seas greater than 8 ft south of 5N and west of 90W into Tue. A weakening cold front is likely to spread S across waters W of Baja California Mon, bringing increased winds and seas to areas N of 23N. $$ KONARIK