000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100225 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Oct 10 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Low pressure of 1007 mb, centered near 13N100W, is producing a broad area of numerous moderate to scattered strong convection from 09N to 17N between 93W and 106W. Strong winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are noted within about 90 nm of the center of this low. Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized and environmental conditions are conducive for additional development. A tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form within the next day or so while the system moves WNW at 10 to 15 kt, S of the coast of Guerrero, Mexico. Gale conditions are likely to develop in the area Sun night, and a gale warning has been issued in anticipation of tropical cyclone formation. There is a high chance for tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/HSFEP2.shtml for details on the Gale Warning. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 100W, N of 04N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. See Special Features section above for information on a Gale Warning issued for an associated low pressure center that is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone, as well as details on related convection. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 11N111W to 1010 mb low pressure near 13N136W to 10N140W. Aside from convection mentioned in the Special Features section above, scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 09N east of 91W from 07N to 17N between 106W and 131W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section above for details on a gale warning issued in association with low pressure with a high chance for tropical cyclone development south of southern Mexico. Gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec have diminished. High pressure prevails west of the Baja California peninsula. This is supporting fresh to locally strong NW winds over the waters W of Baja California, with the highest winds near the coast of Baja California Norte. Gentle to moderate NW winds are also occurring in the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds are occurring elsewhere offshore Mexico. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft W of Baja California, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, environmental conditions are conducive for additional development of low pressure centered S of Guerrero, Mexico, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form within the next day or so while the system moves WNW at 10 to 15 kt S of the coast of Mexico. A gale warning is in effect in anticipation of tropical cyclone development. Elsewhere, high pressure W of Baja California will support fresh to strong winds overnight W of the Peninsula. Another surface will likely lead to more strong winds both W of Baja California Norte and in the northern Gulf of California Mon into Tue. Seas of up to 12 ft may also follow this second surge offshore Baja California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the area, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. For the forecast, mainly gentle NW winds will prevail N of the monsoon trough early this week, with gentle to moderate SW winds to the S. A moderate southwest swell will propagate through the regional waters during the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for information on a Gale Warning issued in anticipation of tropical cyclone development expected with a low pressure S of Guerrero, Mexico. High pressure of 1034 mb is centered near 38N150W. Associated ridge extends ESE across the northern waters. A surface trough extends from 19N135W to 14N135W. This trough has a low pressure centered at the southern end, near the monsoon trough axis, at 13N136W. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and these areas of low pressure is supporting fresh to strong winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft, north of the monsoon trough and west of 125W. Mainly moderate winds and seas in the 5 to 8 ft range prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure will continue to prevail over the northern waters. This will support fresh to strong trade- winds north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W into Tue. Southerly swell will maintain seas greater than 8 ft south of 5N and west of 90W into Tue. A weakening cold front is likely to spread S across waters W of Baja California Mon, bringing increased winds and seas to areas N of 23N. $$ KONARIK