000 AXPZ20 KNHC 092101 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Oct 9 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Low pressure of 1007 mb, centered near 12N97.5W, is producing a broad area of numerous moderate to isolated strong convection from 08N to 16N between 92W and 102W. Fresh to strong winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are noted in association to this low. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form within the next day or two while the system moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph south of the coast of Mexico. There is a high chance for tropical cyclone development within the next 48 hours. Please see the latest eastern north Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook at https://www.hurricanes.gov for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 98W, N of 03N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Please see Special Features section above for details on associated low pressure with a high chance for tropical cyclone development, as well as information on related convection. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 12N97W to 10N125W to to 13N135W to 10N140W. Aside from convection mentioned in the Special Features section above, scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 09N east of 89W, from 08N to 14N between 102W and 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section above for details on low pressure with a high chance for tropical cyclone development south of southern Mexico by early next week. Fresh to strong N to NE gap winds are occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, feeding into the low pressure area being monitored for tropical cyclone development, along with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Conditions will improve in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the night as the area of low pressure south south-southwest of the Gulf will move further from the area. High pressure prevails west of the Baja California peninsula. This is supporting fresh to locally strong NW winds over the waters W of Baja California, with the highest winds near the coast of Baja California Norte. Gentle to moderate N winds are also occurring in the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds are occurring elsewhere offshore Mexico. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft W of Baja California, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, broad low pressure located a few hundred miles south- southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is being monitored for tropical cyclone development. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form within the next couple of days while the system moves WNW at 15 mph, S of the coast of Mexico. Elsewhere, high pressure W of Baja California will support fresh to strong winds W of the peninsula this weekend. Another surge may lead to more strong winds on both W of Baja California Norte and in the northern Gulf of California early next week. Seas of 8 to 11 ft may also follow this second surge offshore Baja California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the area, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. For the forecast, generally gentle to moderate N winds can be expected N of the monsoon trough into early next week, with mainly moderate SW winds to the S. A moderate southwest swell will propagate through the regional waters during the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1034 mb is centered near 38N150W. Associated ridge extends ESE across the northern waters. A surface trough extends from 21N134W to 15N135W. This trough has a 1010 mb low pressure centered at the southern end, within the monsoon trough, at 13N135W. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and these areas of low pressure is supporting fresh to strong winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft, north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W. Gentle to moderate winds and seas in the 5 to 8 ft range prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure will continue to prevail over the northern waters. This will support fresh to strong trade- winds north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W into early next week. Southerly swell will maintain seas greater than 8 ft south of the equator and west of 90W. Seas greater than 8 ft will spread north of the equator and west of 95W this weekend. A weakening cold front is likely to spread S across waters W of Baja California early next week, bringing increased winds and seas to areas N of 25N. $$ AL