000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090801 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Oct 9 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Low pressure of 1008 mb, centered near 11N97W, a few hundred miles S of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, is producing a broad area of numerous moderate to isolated strong convection from 08N to 15N between 85W and 102W. Some fresh to strong winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are also occurring. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development of this low, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form within the next couple of days while the system moves W to WNW at 10 to 15 kt S of the coast of Mexico. There is a high chance for tropical cyclone development within the next 48 hours. Please see the latest eastern north Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 97W, N of 93N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Please see Special Features section above for details on associated low pressure that is expected to have tropical development in the next few days, as well as information on related convection. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 10N82W to a 1010 mb low pressure near 10N117W to another 1010 mb low pressure near 13N135W. Aside from convection associated with another low pressure area described in the Special Features section above, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 15N between 102W and 110W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 08N, E of 83W and from 07N to 11N between 115W and 127W. Scattered moderate convection has also developed from 13N to 19N between 131W and 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section above for details on expected tropical cyclone development south of southern Mexico by early next week. Strong N to NE gap winds are occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec along with seas of 6 to 8 ft. With the high pressure in the western Gulf of Mexico responsible for these winds weakening, conditions will improve in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the day. Fresh to locally strong NW winds dominate W of Baja California as high pressure builds S into the area, with the highest winds near the coast of Baja California Norte. Moderate N winds are also occurring in the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds are occurring elsewhere offshore Mexico. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft W of Baja California, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development of the low pressure S of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form within the next couple of days while the system moves W to WNW at 10 to 15 mph, S of the coast of Mexico. Elsewhere, high pressure surging south W of Baja California will lead to fresh to strong winds W of the peninsula this weekend. Another surge may lead to more strong winds on both W of Baja California Norte and in the northern Gulf of California early next week. Seas of 8 to 11 ft may also follow this second surge offshore Baja California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Low pressure that was S and W of Guatemala has moved farther W and away from the area overnight. Winds across the area are moderate or less, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. For the forecast, generally gentle to moderate N winds can be expected N of the monsoon trough into early next week, with mainly moderate SW winds to the S. A moderate southwest swell will propagate through the regional waters during the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see Special Features section above for information on low pressure that is likely to form into a tropical cyclone offshore southern Mexico in the next couple of days. High pressure of 1033 mb is centered near 37N151W. Associated ridge extends ESE across the northern waters. One surface through that had been over the far western waters has dissipated, but another surface trough is noted from 26N123W to 15N131W. This trough has a 1010 mb low pressure centered at the southern end near the monsoon trough, at 13N135W. A second 1010 mb low pressure center is noted near 10N117W. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and these areas of low pressure is supporting fresh to strong winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft, north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W. Gentle to moderate winds and seas in the 5 to 8 ft range prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure will continue to prevail over the northern waters. This will support fresh to strong trade- winds north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W into early next week. Southerly swell will maintain seas greater than 8 ft south of the equator and west of 90W. Seas greater than 8 ft will spread north of the equator and west of 95W this weekend. A weakening cold front is likely to spread S across waters W of Baja California early next week, bringing increased winds and seas to areas N of 25N. $$ KONARIK