000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090220 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Oct 9 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Broad low pressure several hundred miles SSE of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is centered near 10N94W and is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some fresh to strong winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are also occurring. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form by late this weekend or early next week while the system moves W to WNW at 10 to 15 kt S of the coast of Mexico. There is a high chance for tropical cyclone development within the next 48 hours. Please see the latest eastern north Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 94W and N of 02N, moving W at 10 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 15N between 85W and 102W. Please see Special Features section above details on low pressure centered along this wave that has the likelihood of tropical cyclone development. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 10N85W to a 1009 mb low pressure near 10N115W to 13N137W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical wave, depicted in the section above, scattered moderate to isolated strong from 03N to 08N E of 83W, from 07N to 15N between 102W and 110W, and from 07N to 11N between 115W and 127W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section above for details on likely tropical cyclone development south of southern Mexico by early next week. Winds have diminished below gale force over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with strong to near gale force winds, and seas to 9 ft, prevailing. Fresh winds dominate W of Baja California as high pressure begins to build S into the area. Gentle to moderate winds are noted in the central Gulf of California, and light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range over the open waters off Mexico, and 1 to 3 ft over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form late this weekend or early next week while low pressure moves W to WNW at 10 to 15 kt S of the coast of Mexico. Elsewhere, high pressure will build west of the Baja California peninsula which will strengthen winds through the weekend. NW swell will propagate into the waters west of Baja California bringing building seas this weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see Special Features section above for details on likely tropical cyclone development W of Guatemala late this weekend. Moderate to fresh winds prevail over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo, with light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Mainly moderate winds are noted south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range across the area. For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh at night over the Gulf of Papagayo through the weekend, with light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough through early next week. Mainly moderate southwest winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough. A moderate southwest swell will propagate through the regional waters during the next several days. A tropical wave moving into the eastern Pacific tonight has a potential to develop into a low pressure offshore Guatemala this weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1033 mb is centered near 37N151W. Associated ridge extends ESE across the northern waters. A surface trough extends from 19N136W to 15N140W. Another trough extends from 26N123W to 15N131W. This trough has a 1010 mb low pressure centered at the southern end near the monsoon trough, at 14N133W. A second 1010 mb low pressure center is noted near 10N115W. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and these areas of low pressure is supporting fresh to strong winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft, north of the monsoon trough and west of 125W. Gentle to moderate winds and seas in the 5 to 7 ft range prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure will continue to prevail over the northern waters. This will support fresh to strong trade- winds north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W into early next week. Southerly swell will maintain seas greater than 8 ft south of the equator and west of 90W. Seas greater than 8 ft will spread north of the equator and west of 95W this weekend. A cold front may move south across the waters west of Baja California Norte to 130W early next week, with fresh to strong northerly winds and large NW swell behind it. $$ KONARIK