000 AXPZ20 KNHC 082046 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Oct 8 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2040 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Low pressure has developed along a tropical wave near 09.5N92W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form by late this weekend or early next week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph south of the coast of Mexico. There is a medium chance for tropical cyclone development within the next 48 hours and a high chance of development within the next five days. Please see the latest eastern north Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 92W and N of 01N, moving W at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 13N between 90W and 95W. Low pressure along the wave is being monitored for potential tropical cyclone development. Please see SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more on the possibility of tropical cyclone development. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N110W to 13N140W. Aside from convection discussed above in association to the low and tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 08N E of 82W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 15N between 95W and 110W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 115W and 129W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning currently in effect, as well as the potential for tropical cyclone development south of southern Mexico. Winds have diminished below gale force over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with strong to near gale force winds, and seas to 9 ft, prevailing. Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail west of Baja California. Gentle to moderate winds are noted in the central Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range over the open waters off Mexico, and 1 to 3 ft over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, low pressure centered south of southern Mexico and Guatemala will move westward to west-northwestward south of southern Mexico this weekend. Environmental conditions are conducive for tropical cyclone development offshore southern Mexico late this weekend or early next week. Elsewhere, high pressure will build west of the Baja California peninsula which will strengthen winds through the weekend. NW swell will propagate into the waters west of Baja California bringing building seas this weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh winds prevail over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo, with light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Mainly moderate winds are noted south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range across the area. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong winds will pulse nightly over the Gulf of Papagayo into the weekend, with light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough through early next week. Mainly moderate southwest winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough. A moderate southwest swell will propagate through the regional waters during the next several days. Low pressure along a tropical wave offshore Central America is being monitored for tropical cyclone development. The low will move W or WNW away from the offshore waters off Central America this weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1033 mb is centered near 37N151W. Associated ridge extends ESE across the northern waters. A surface trough extends from 20N135W to 14N140W. Another trough extends from 26N123W to 15N130W. A couple of low pressure areas are embedded within the monsoon trough, one near 13N128W and another one near 12N118W. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and these areas of low pressure is supporting fresh to strong winds, and seas of 8 to 10 ft, north of the monsoon trough and west of 125W. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas in the 5 to 7 ft range prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure will continue to prevail over the northern waters. This will support fresh to strong trade- winds north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W through this weekend into early next week. Southerly swell will maintain seas greater than 8 ft south of the equator and west of 90W. Seas greater than 8 ft will spread north of the equator and west of 95W into the weekend. A cold front may move south across the waters west of Baja California Norte to 130W early next week, with fresh to strong northerly winds and large NW swell behind it. $$ AL