415 AXPZ20 KNHC 080157 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Oct 8 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure across eastern Mexico and lower pressure within the monsoon trough south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec and a tropical wave SE of the Gulf of Tehuantepec will support gale force northerly winds into Fri. Seas will peak around 11 ft. Fresh to strong northerly winds will then pulse through Sat night before diminishing. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 90W and N of 01N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted N of 06N between 80W and 90W. Low pressure may form in association with this wave this weekend as it continues moving W or WNW. The axis of a tropical wave is near 132W, from 01N to 17N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Convection near this wave is primarily associated with the monsoon trough, described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 1012 mb low pressure centered near 12N118W to 09N132W to beyond 13N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 90W to 128W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 06N E of 80 and from 10N to 14N between 135W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning currently in effect. Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moderate winds prevail west of Baja California as well as in the central Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range over the open waters off Mexico, and 1 to 3 ft over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, gale force northerly winds will prevail in the Gulf of Tehuantepec into Fri before diminishing. High pressure will build west of the Baja California peninsula which will strengthen winds for the remainder of the week into the weekend. NW swell will propagate into the waters west of Baja California bringing building seas this weekend. A larger set of NW swell is possible early next week as a cold front moves across Baja California Norte. A tropical wave moving into the eastern Pacific south of the region has a potential to develop into a low pressure and move into waters offshore southern Mexico early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh winds prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo, with light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Mainly moderate winds are noted south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range across the area. For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh at night over the Gulf of Papagayo through the weekend, with light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough through early next week. Mainly moderate southwest winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough. A moderate southwest swell will propagate through the regional waters during the next several days. A tropical wave moving into the eastern Pacific tonight has a potential to develop into a low pressure offshore Guatemala this weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure is building north of the area. This is supporting fresh to strong N-NE winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft over the NW waters. A trough extends from near 19N138W to 16N140W, while another surface trough is from 27N122W to 16N127W. A 1012 mb low pressure center has formed along the southern edge of this trough where it nears the monsoon trough, near 15N127W. Fresh to locally strong winds are west of the western trough with seas to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere over the open waters, along with seas in the 5 to 7 ft range. For the forecast, high pressure will continue to build north of the area, strengthening trade- winds north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W this weekend into early next week. Southerly swell will maintain seas greater than 8 ft south of the equator and west of 90W. Seas greater than 8 ft will spread north of the equator and west of 95W into the weekend. A cold front may move south across the waters west of Baja California Norte to 130W early next week, with fresh to strong northerly winds and large NW swell behind it. $$ KONARIK