000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070800 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Oct 7 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0710 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure building across eastern Mexico and the SW Gulf of Mexico behind a stationary front combined with lower pressure south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec will support minimal gale force northerly winds through Fri night. Seas will peak around 11 ft. Fresh to strong northerly winds will then pulse through Sat night before diminishing. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 87W and N of 01N, moving west at around 15 kt. Associated convection is described below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 128W, from 01N to 17N, moving west at around 15 kt. Associated convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N75W to 09N86W to 07N93W to 10N110W to 12N124W to 10N130W to 13N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 11N to 14N between 88W and 91W, from 06N to 10N between 91W and 98W, from 07N to 11N between 102W and 118W, from 05N to 11N between 123W and 131W, from 10N to 15N between 138W and 140W, and from 16N to 19N between 136W and 139W. Similar convection is noted from 02N to 10N between 77W and 80W, and from 18N to 22N between 126W and 129W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning currently in effect. Gentle to moderate winds prevail west of Baja California as well as in the central and southern Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range over the open waters off Mexico, and 1 to 3 ft over the Gulf of California except to 4 ft near the entrance. For the forecast, high pressure will build west of the Baja California peninsula which will strengthen winds for the remainder of the week into the weekend. NW swell will propagate into the waters west of Baja California bringing building seas this weekend. A larger set of NW swell is possible early next week as a cold front moves across Baja California Norte. Winds may increase to fresh to strong in the northern Gulf of California ahead of the front early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo, with light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Mainly moderate winds are noted south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range across the area. For the forecast, winds will pulse to moderate to fresh at night over the Gulf of Papagayo through the weekend, with light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough through early next week. Mainly moderate southwest winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough. A moderate southwest swell will propagate through the regional waters during the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front is entering the far northwest waters with fresh to strong N-NE winds and building seas of 8 to 10 ft in NW swell behind the front. High pressure prevails south of the front to 20N. Low pressure near 13N140W extends a trough to near 20N137W, while another surface trough is from 20N127W to 12N127W. Fresh to locally strong winds are west of the western trough with seas building to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere over the open waters, along with seas in the 5 to 7 ft range. For the forecast, the cold front will continue to shift southeast into the northern waters while weakening. Fresh to strong winds and building seas will continue to follow the front. High pressure building in the wake of the front will also help for trades to strengthen north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W later this week into the weekend. Southerly swell will maintain seas greater than 8 ft south of the equator and west of 90W. Seas greater than 8 ft will spread north of the equator and west of 95W later this week into the weekend. Another cold front may move south across the waters west of Baja California Norte to 130W with fresh to strong northerly winds and large NW swell behind it. $$ Lewitsky