000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070130
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Oct 7 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0120 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 85W and N of 02N, moving 
west at around 20 kt. Associated convection is described below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 126W/127W, from 01N to 16N, 
moving west at around 15 kt. Associated convection is described 
below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to
10N100W to 12N120W to 11N130W to 13N140W. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 122W and 
129W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N
to 14N between 102W and 110W, from 05N to 11N between 110W and 
120W, and from 07N to 12N between 137W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with
seas of 8 to 9 ft. Gentle to moderate winds prevail west of Baja
California as well as in the Gulf of California. Light to gentle
winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range over 
the open waters off Mexico, and 1 to 3 ft over the Gulf of 
California. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will prevail in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec through Sat, pulsing to near gale force tonight 
and Thu night. Seas will range between 8 and 10 ft with the 
strongest winds. High pressure will build west of the Baja 
California peninsula which will strengthen winds late this week 
into the weekend. NW swell will propagate into the waters west of
Baja California bringing building seas this weekend. A larger 
set of NW swell is possible early next week as a cold front moves
across Baja California Norte.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate winds prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo, with light to 
gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to 
moderate winds are noted south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in
the 5 to 7 ft range across the area. 

For the forecast, winds will pulse to moderate to fresh at night
over the Gulf of Papagayo through the weekend, with light to 
gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough through early 
next week. Mainly moderate southwest winds will prevail south of 
the monsoon trough. A moderate southwest swell will propagate 
through the regional waters during the next several days. 
 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails over the northern waters. Gentle to
moderate winds are noted the forecast waters, except locally
fresh near the tropical wave along 126W/127W, and near low
pressure at 18N138W. Seas are generally in the 5-7 ft range, 
reaching 8 ft south of the equator. 

For the forecast, a cold front will approach the far NW waters 
tonight. Fresh to strong winds and building seas will follow the
front. High pressure building in the wake of the front will help
for trades to strengthen north of the monsoon trough and west of
120W later this week into the weekend. Southerly swell will 
maintain seas greater than 8 ft south of the equator and west of 
90W. Seas greater than 8 ft will spread north of the equator and 
west of 95W later this week into the weekend. A cold front may
move south across the waters west of Baja California Norte to
130W with fresh to strong northerly winds and large NW swell
behind it.

$$
Lewitsky