000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062045
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Oct 6 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2040 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 82W and N of 02N, moving 
west at 5-10 kt. Associated convection is described below in the 
monsoon trough section. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 124W, from 01N to 16N, 
moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Associated convection is described below 
in the monsoon trough section.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N115W to 12N123W to 
13N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted N of 
04N and E of 81W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 
08N to 10N between 84W and 95W, and from 08N to 12N between 95W 
and 105W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted 
from 06N to 12N between 114W and 130W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with
seas to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate winds prevail west of Baja 
California as well as in the Gulf of California. Light to gentle 
winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-6 ft range over the 
open waters off Mexico, and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong will prevail in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, pulsing to near gale force tonight and Thu night. 
Seas will range between 8 and 10 ft with the strongest winds. 
High pressure will build west of the Baja California peninsula 
which will strengthen winds late this week into the weekend. NW 
swell will propagate into the waters west of Baja California 
bringing an increase in seas this weekend.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo, with
light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. 
Gentle to moderate winds are noted south of the monsoon trough. 
Seas are in the 5-7 ft range across the area. 

For the forecast, winds will pulse to moderate to fresh at night
over the Gulf of Papagayo with light to gentle winds elsewhere 
north of the monsoon trough through the forecast period. Mainly 
moderate southwest winds will prevail south of the monsoon 
trough. A moderate southwest swell will propagate through the 
regional waters during the next several days. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails over the northern waters. Gentle to
moderate winds are noted the forecast waters. Seas are 
generally in the 5-7 ft range, reaching 8 ft south of the 
equator. 

For the forecast, a cold front will approach the far NW waters 
tonight. Fresh to strong winds and building seas will follow the
front. High pressure building in the wake of the front will help
for trades to strengthen north of the monsoon trough and west of
120W later this week into the weekend. Southerly swell will 
maintain seas greater than 8 ft south of the equator and west of 
90W. Seas greater than 8 ft will spread north of the equator and 
west of 95W later this week into the weekend.

$$
AL