000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061440
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Oct 6 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1440 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 81W and N of 02N, moving 
west at 5-10 kt. Associated convection is described below 
in the monsoon trough section. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 123W, from 01N to 16N, 
moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Associated convection is described below 
in the monsoon trough section.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N117W to 12N123W to
13N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted N of 
04N and E of 80W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N
to 12N between 88W and 101W...and from 08N to 10N between 101W
and 110W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 06N to 12N between 114W and 125W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with
seas to 9 ft. Gentle to moderate winds prevail west of Baja 
California as well as in the Gulf of California. Light to gentle
winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-6 ft range over the 
open waters off Mexico, and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong will prevail in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, pulsing to near gale force tonight and Thu night. 
Seas will range between 8 and 10 ft with the strongest winds. 
Generally tranquil conditions will dominate the remainder of the 
forecast waters. These conditions will continue through early 
Sat. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo, with
light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. 
Gentle to moderate winds are noted south of the monsoon trough. 
Seas are in the 5-7 ft range across the area. 

For the forecast, winds will pulse to moderate to fresh at night
over the Gulf of Papagayo with light to gentle winds elsewhere 
north of the monsoon trough through the forecast period. Mainly 
moderate southwest winds will prevail south of the monsoon 
trough. A moderate southwest swell will propagate through the 
regional waters during the next several days. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails over the northern waters. Gentle to
moderate winds are noted the forecast waters. Seas are 
generally in the 5-7 ft range, reaching 8 ft south of the 
equator. 

For the forecast, a cold front will approach the far NW waters 
tonight. Fresh winds and building seas will follow the front. 
High pressure building in the wake of the front will help for 
trades to strengthen north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W
later this week into the weekend. Southerly swell will maintain 
seas greater than 8 ft south of the equator and west of 90W. Seas
greater than 8 ft will spread north of the equator and west of 
95W later this week into the weekend.

$$
AL