000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060901
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Oct 6 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is analyzed along 79W and N of 02N, 
moving west at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is noted N of 04N and W of 80W. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 122W, from 01N to 16N, 
moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Associated convection is described below 
in the monsoon trough section.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N110W to 1011 mb low
near 13N138W to 12N140W. Scattered showers are noted within 100
nm on either side of the boundary between 90W-110W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 07N to 13N and W of 112W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with
seas to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate winds prevail west of Baja 
California, with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are in the
5-6 ft range over the open waters off Mexico, and 1-3 ft over 
the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong will prevail in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, pulsing to near gale force tonight and Thu night. 
Seas will range between 8 and 10 ft with the strongest winds. 
Generally tranquil conditions will dominate the remainder of the 
forecast waters. These conditions will continue through early 
Sat. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo, with
light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. 
Gentle to moderate winds are noted south of the monsoon trough. 
Seas are in the 5-7 ft range across the area. 

For the forecast, winds will pulse to moderate to fresh at night
over the Gulf of Papagayo with light to gentle winds elsewhere 
north of the monsoon trough through the forecast period. Mainly 
moderate southwest winds will prevail south of the monsoon 
trough. A moderate southwest swell will propagate through the 
regional waters during the next several days. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1011 mb low pres is centered along the monsoon trough near 
13N138W. Moderate winds are noted within 120 nm north of the 
low. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon
trough. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are noted south of 
the monsoon trough. Seas are generally in the 6-7 ft range, 
reaching 9 ft south of the equator. 

For the forecast, a cold front will approach the far NW waters 
tonight. Fresh winds and building seas will follow the front. 
High pressure building in the wake of the front will help for 
trades to strengthen north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W
later this week into the weekend. Southerly swell will maintain 
seas greater than 8 ft south of the equator and west of 90W. Seas
greater than 8 ft will spread north of the equator and west of 
95W later this week into the weekend.

$$
ERA