517 
AXPZ20 KNHC 052039
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Oct 5 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2040 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 80W, N of 02N, moving west at
5-10 kt. Associated convection is described below in the monsoon
trough section.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 119W, from 02N to 16N, 
moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Associated convection is described below 
in the monsoon trough section.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N111W to 12N121W to 
10N130W to 12N137W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate isolated 
strong convection is noted from 02N to 10N east of 82W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 
85W and 130W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
noted from 08N to 12N west of 133W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with
seas to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate winds prevail west of Baja 
California, with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are in the
5-6 ft range over the open waters off Mexico, except to 7 ft 
over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of 
California. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong will prevail in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, pulsing to near gale force Wed night and Thu night. 
Generally tranquil conditions will dominate the remainder of the 
forecast waters. These conditions will continue through early 
Sat. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo, with
light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. 
Gentle to moderate winds are noted south of the monsoon trough. 
Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the waters between Ecuador and 
the Galapagos Islands, and 4-7 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, winds will pulse to moderate to fresh at night
over the Gulf of Papagayo with light to gentle winds elsewhere 
north of the monsoon trough through the forecast period. Mainly 
moderate southwest winds will prevail south of the monsoon 
trough. A moderate southwest swell will propagate through the 
regional waters during the next several days. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1011 mb low pres is centered along the monsoon trough near 
13N138W. Moderate to fresh winds are found within 120 nm north 
of the low. A surface trough extends from 20N121W to 15N122W. 
Gentle to moderate winds are noted west of the surface trough. 
Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon 
trough. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are noted south of the
monsoon trough. Seas are generally in the 6-7 ft range, reaching
9 ft south of the equator. 

For the forecast, a cold front will approach the far NW waters 
late Wed. Fresh winds and building seas will follow the front. 
High pressure building in the wake of the front will help for 
trades to strengthen north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W
later this week into the weekend. Southerly swell will maintain
seas greater than 8 ft south of the equator and west of 90W. Seas
greater than 8 ft will spread north of the equator and west of
95W later this week into the weekend.

$$
AL