000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051502
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Oct 5 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1440 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 118W, from 02N to 16N, 
moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Associated convection is described below
in the monsoon trough section.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N118W to 13N120W to
10N128W to 13N135W to 13N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 02N to 09N east of 82W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 85W and
125W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from
08N to 12N west of 135W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec with
seas of 8 to 10 ft. Gentle to moderate winds prevail west of Baja
California, with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are in the
5-6 ft range over the open waters off Mexico, and 1-3 ft over the
Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong will prevail in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, pulsing to near gale force Wed night and Thu night. 
Generally tranquil conditions will dominate the remainder of the 
forecast waters. These conditions will continue through early 
Sat. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo, with
light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. 
Gentle to moderate winds are noted south of the monsoon trough. 
Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the waters between Ecuador and 
the Galapagos Islands, and 4-6 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, winds will pulse to moderate to fresh at night
over the Gulf of Papagayo with light to gentle winds elsewhere 
north of the monsoon trough through the forecast period. Mainly 
moderate southwest winds will prevail south of the monsoon 
trough. A moderate southwest swell will propagate through the 
regional waters during the next several days. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1011 mb low pres is centered along the monsoon trough near 
13N137W. Moderate to fresh winds are found within 120 nm north of
the low. A surface trough extends from 18N121W to 13N121W.
Gentle to moderate winds are noted west of the surface trough.
Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon
trough. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are noted south of the
monsoon trough. Seas are generally in the 6-7 ft range, reaching
8 ft south of the equator. 

For the forecast, a cold front will approach the far NW waters 
late Wed. Fresh winds and building seas will follow the front. 
High pressure building in the wake of the front will help for 
trades to strengthen north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W
later this week into the weekend.

$$
AL