000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050916
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Oct 5 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis extending along 117W, from 02N to 
16N, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 12N
to 18N between 115W and 118W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N127W to a 1011 mb 
low pres near 13N137W to beyond 13N140W. Aside from convection 
related to the tropical wave described in the section above, 
scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 15N and W of 
133W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gentle winds prevail across the area, with seas of 4 to 6 ft. 
Strong gap winds are pulsing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas of
8 to 9 ft are expected with strongest winds.

For the forecast, generally tranquil conditions will dominate 
area waters, while fresh to strong N winds will pulse in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec. These pulses will become stronger by Thu 
night, reaching near-gale values. Seas will range between 8 to 10
ft with these winds. These conditions will continue through early Sat.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle mainly east winds are N of the monsoon trough 
with gentle to moderate south winds to its S. Seas are generally
4 to 6 ft due to a southwest long-period swell, but some more
significant swell propagating northward is leading to seas of 6
to 8 ft offshore Ecuador. 

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail north of 
the monsoon trough through the forecast period, with mainly 
moderate southwest winds south of the monsoon trough. Periods 
of moderate to strong gap winds can be expected in the Papagayo 
region through the end of the week. A moderate southwest swell 
will propagate through the regional waters during the next 
several days. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1011 mb low pres is centered along the monsoon trough near 
13N137W. Convection in the vicinity is described in the section 
above. 

For the area W of 125W, S of 25N, and N of the monsoon trough,
moderate NE to E winds prevail, with seas of up to 7 ft.
Elsewhere N of the monsoon trough, light to gentle winds prevail.
To the S of the monsoon trough, mainly moderate S winds prevail.
Seas are 5 to 7 ft primarily in southwest swell. More significant
S to SW swell is leading to seas of 5 to 7 ft close to the 
Equator.

For the forecast, generally moderate northeast winds will be N 
of 13N and W of 125W, with light to gentle winds N of 13N and E 
of 125W through today, then gentle to moderate winds are 
expected through late this week. Looking ahead, a cold front 
followed by fresh to strong northeast winds along with building 
seas is forecast to approach the far NW corner by late Wed.

$$
ERA