000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041920
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Oct 4 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis extending along 116W, from 03N to
16N, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 08N to 19N between 110W and 118W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W in Costa Rica to a 1011 mb
low pres near 14N117W to beyond 13N140W. Aside from convection 
related to the tropical wave described in the section above, 
scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 
85W and 99W and from 06N to 18N between 118W and 137W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A 1012 mb low pressure centered well west of the area will
continue moving W away from the region tonight, with no marine
impacts. Gentle winds prevail across the area, with seas of 4 to
6 ft. Strong gap winds are pulsing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, generally tranquil conditions will dominate 
area waters, but strong N winds will prevail in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. These winds will pulse in the overnights to near 
gale-force Tue into late week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle mainly east winds are N of the monsoon trough 
with gentle to moderate south winds to its S. Seas are generally
4 to 6 ft due to a southwest long-period swell, but some more
significant swell propagating northward is leading to seas of 6
to 8 ft offshore Ecuador. 

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail north of 
the monsoon trough through the forecast period, with mainly 
moderate southwest winds south of the monsoon trough. A moderate 
southwest swell will propagate through the regional waters during
the next several days. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1011 mb low pres is centered along the monsoon trough near
14N117W. Convection in the vicinity is primarily associated 
with a tropical wave, described in the Tropical Waves section 
above. Another 1011 mb is noted near 13N135W. Convection near 
this low is primarily along the monsoon trough, and is depicted 
in the section above. 

For the area W of 125W, S of 25N, and N of the monsoon trough,
moderate NE to E winds prevail, with seas of up to 7 ft.
Elsewhere N of the monsoon trough, light to gentle winds prevail.
To the S of the monsoon trough, mainly moderate S winds prevail.
Seas are 5 to 7 ft primarily in south to southwest swell. More
significant S to SW swell is leading to seas of 6 to 8 ft close
to the Equator.

For the forecast, generally moderate northeast winds will be N 
of 13N and W of 125W, with light to gentle winds N of 13N and E 
of 125W through tonight, then gentle to moderate winds are 
expected into late week. Looking ahead, a cold front followed by 
fresh to strong northeast winds along with building seas is 
forecast to approach the far NW corner of the area early Wed.

$$
KONARIK