000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041531
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Oct 4 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis extending along 115W, from 03N to
16N, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 06N to 19N between 110W and 116W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 11N107W to a 1010 mb
low pres near 14N120W to beyond 13N140W. Aside from convection 
related to the tropical wave described in the section above, 
scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 
85W and 95W and from 06N to 20N between 116W and 134W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Weak low pressure of 1013 mb has developed just west of the area
near 28N122W along a surface trough. No significant convection is
associated with this feature. Gentle winds prevail across the 
area, with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Fresh to strong gap winds are 
pulsing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, weak low pressure W of Baja California will 
continue weakening as it drifts west away from the area through 
midweek. Fresh to strong N winds prevail in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. Near gale-force gap winds are expected to pulse at 
nighttime in this area by midweek.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle mainly east winds are N of the monsoon trough 
with gentle to moderate south winds to its S. Seas are generally
4 to 6 ft due to a southwest long-period swell, but some more
significant swell propagating northward is leading to seas of 6
to 8 ft offshore Ecuador. Moderate gap winds are ongoing in the 
Gulf of Papagayo.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail north of 
the monsoon trough through the forecast period, with mainly 
moderate southwest winds south of the monsoon trough. A moderate 
southwest swell will propagate through the regional waters during
the next several days. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1010 mb low pres is centered along the monsoon trough near
14N120W. Convection in the vicinity is primarily associated with
a tropical wave, described in the Tropical Waves section above. 
Another 1010 mb is noted near 13N135W, with scattered moderate
convection noted within about 120 nm of the center. For the area
W of 130W, moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds prevail, 
highest closest to the monsoon trough, with some seas up to 7 ft.
To the E of 130W, light to gentle winds prevail. S of the 
monsoon trough, mainly moderate S winds prevail. Seas are 5 to 7 
ft primarily in south to southwest swell. 

For the forecast, generally, moderate northeast winds will be N 
of 13N and W of 125W, with light to gentle winds N of 13N and E 
of 125W through today, then gentle to moderate winds are 
expected into late week. Looking ahead, a cold front followed by
fresh to strong northeast winds along with building seas is 
forecast to approach the far NW corner of the area Wed.

$$
KONARIK