000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040902
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Oct 4 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0845 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis extending along 113W, from 03N to 
16N, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 06N to 19N between 110W and 115W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N100N to 15N114W to 
1009 mb low pres near 13N118W to 13N140W. Aside from convection 
related to the tropical wave described in the section above, 
scattered moderate convection is noted along the boundary between
92W-100W and from 06N to 19N between 105W and 127W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from 28N121W to 22N123W with no
significant convection. Gentle winds prevail across the area, 
with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Fresh to strong gap winds are pulsing in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, the trough will continue weakening as it 
drifts west away from the area through midweek. Fresh N winds 
prevail in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, increasing to strong at 
night. Near gale-force gap winds are expected to pulse at 
nighttime in this area by midweek.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle mainly east winds are N of the monsoon trough 
with gentle to moderate south winds to its S. Seas are generally
4 to 6 ft due to a southwest long-period swell. Moderate gap 
winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Papagayo.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will continue north of 
the monsoon trough through the period, with mainly moderate 
southwest winds south of the monsoon trough. A moderate southwest
swell will propagate through the regional waters during the next
several days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1009 mb low pres is centered along the monsoon trough near 
13N118W with scattered moderate convection. This activity is 
described in the section above. For the area W of 130W, moderate 
to locally fresh NE to E winds prevail, with some seas up to 7 
ft. To the E of 130W, light to gentle winds prevail. S of the 
monsoon trough, mainly moderate S winds prevail. Seas are 5 to 7 
ft primarily in south to southwest swell. NW swell is bringing 
seas of 8 to 9 ft to waters N of 30N between 130W and 135W. This
swell will decay towards the morning, and seas will fall below 8
ft.

For the forecast, generally, moderate northeast winds will be N 
of 13N and W of 125W, with light to gentle winds N of 13N and E 
of 125W through today, then gentle to moderate winds are 
expected through mid-week. Looking ahead, a cold front followed 
by fresh to strong northeast winds along with building seas is 
forecast to approach the far NW corner of the area by late Wed.

$$
ERA