000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040304
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Oct 4 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis extending 112W, from 04N to 16N, 
moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 07N to 16N between 109W and 114W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 1009 mb low pres near
11N118W to 12N140W. Aside from convection related to the 
tropical wave described in the section above, scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 09N to 20N between 114W and 121W. 
Similar convection is noted from 10N to 16N and W of 139W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from near 22N112W to 17N113W. Associated
convection is SW of the area. The trough will drift W and weaken
early this week. Gentle winds prevail across the area, with seas
of 4 to 6 ft. Fresh to strong gap winds are pulsing in the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec will persist through much of the week. Near gale-
force gap winds are expected to pulse at nighttime in this area 
by midweek.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle mainly east winds are N of the monsoon trough 
with gentle to moderate south winds to its S. Seas are generally
4 to 6 ft due to a southwest long-period swell. Moderate gap 
winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Papagayo.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will continue north of 
the monsoon trough through the period, with mainly moderate 
southwest winds south of the monsoon trough. A moderate southwest
swell will propagate through the regional waters during the next
several days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1009 mb low pres is centered along the monsoon trough near 
11N118W with scattered moderate convection. This activity is 
described in the section above. For the area W of 130W, moderate 
to locally fresh NE to E winds prevail, with some seas up to 8 
ft. To the E of 130W, light to gentle winds prevail. S of the 
monsoon trough, mainly moderate S winds prevail. Seas are 5 to 7 
ft primarily in south to southwest swell. NW swell is bringing 
seas of 8 to 9 ft to waters N of 28N between 130W and 140W. This
swell will decay overnight, and seas will fall below 8 ft.

For the forecast, generally, moderate northeast winds will be N 
of 13N and W of 128W, with light to gentle winds N of 13N and E 
of 128W through tonight, then gentle to moderate winds are 
expected through mid-week. Looking ahead, a cold front followed 
by fresh to strong northeast winds along with building seas is 
forecast to approach the far NW corner of the area by late Wed.

$$
ERA