000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032006
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Oct 3 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1930 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis extending 111W, from 04N to 16N,
moving W at 5 to 10 kt. A 1008 mb low pressure center is
associated with this wave, near 13N108W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 13N between 107W
and 121W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis axis from 10N82W across northern
Costa Rica to a 1008 mb low near 13N108W. It then continues to
12N123W to beyond 12N140W.

Aside from convection related to the tropical wave described in
the section above, scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 08N to 14N between 135W and 140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 13N between 
121W and 128W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A trough extends from near 24N111W to near 15N115W. Associated
convection is all S and W of the area. This trough will drift W 
and weaken early this week. Winds through the basin are mainly 
gentle, with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Fresh to locally strong gap 
winds are increasing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, strong N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will
persist through much of the week. Near gale-force gap winds are 
possible in this area Tue night through Thu night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle mainly east winds are N of the monsoon trough 
with gentle to moderate south winds to its S. Seas are generally
4 to 6 ft due to a southwest long-period swell. Moderate to
locally fresh gap winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Papagayo.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will continue prevail 
north of the monsoon trough through the period, with mainly 
moderate south to southwest winds south of the monsoon trough. A 
moderate southwest swell will propagate through the regional 
waters during the next several days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A stationary 1008 mb low pressure near 13N133W, currently void of
any convection, is expected to begin to drift W over the next 
day or two. N of this low and W of 130W, moderate to locally 
fresh NE to E winds prevail, with some seas up to 8 ft. To the E
of 130W, light to gentle winds prevail. S of the monsoon trough,
mainly moderate S winds prevail. Seas are 5 to 7 ft primarily in
south to southwest swell. NW swell is bringing seas of 8 to 9 ft
to waters N of 28N between 128W and 139W. This swell will decay 
tonight, and seas will fall below 8 ft.

For the forecast, generally, moderate northeast winds will be N 
of 13N and W of 128W, with light to gentle winds N of 13N and E 
of 128W through tonight, then gentle to moderate winds are 
expected throughout through mid-week. Looking ahead, a cold front
followed by fresh to strong northeast winds along with building 
seas is forecast to approach the far NW corner of the area late 
Wed.

$$
KONARIK