000 AXPZ20 KNHC 031507 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Oct 3 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis extending along 110W, from 04N to 16N, moving W at around 10 kt. A weak, 1009 mb, low pressure center has formed in association with this wave, near 13N108W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 107W and 121W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from near the Colombian border around 10N80W across northern Costa Rica to a 1009 mb low near 13N108W. It then continues to a 1008 mb low near 13N117W and to 12N129W. From there, the trough extends to beyond 12N140W. Aside from convection related to the tropical wave described above, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 13N between 138W and 140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 13N between 121W and 128W. Also, scattered moderate convection has developed from 06N to 10N between 79W and 82W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A trough extends from near 24N111W to near 15N115W. Scattered moderate convection is W of this trough to 118W from 15N to 17N. This trough will drift NW and weaken early this week. Winds through the basin are mainly gentle, with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Fresh gap winds are increasing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. For the forecast, north winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will increase to strong speeds by early this afternoon. These winds will remain strong during the period, possibly reaching near gale force from Tue night through Thu night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle mainly east winds are N of the monsoon trough with gentle to moderate south winds to its S. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft due to a southwest long-period swell. Moderate to fresh gap winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Papagayo. For the forecast, light to gentle winds will continue prevail north of the monsoon trough through the period, with mainly moderate south to southwest winds south of the monsoon trough. A moderate cross-equatorial southwest swell will propagate through the regional waters during the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A nearly stationary 1009 mb low pressure near 13N133W is expected to weaken early this week, as associated convection has dissipated. Development of this system is no longer anticipated. N of this low and W of 130W, moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail, with some seas of 8 to 9 ft. Conditions will gradually improve into tonight as the low weakens. To the E of 130W, light to gentle winds prevail. S of the monsoon trough, mainly moderate S winds prevail. Seas are 5 to 7 ft primarily in south to southwest swell. NW swell is brining seas of 8 to 9 ft to waters N of 28N between 124W and 139W. This swell will decay by this evening, and seas will fall below 8 ft. For the forecast, generally, moderate to fresh northeast winds will be N of 13N and W of 126W, with light to gentle winds N of 13N and E of 126W through tonight, then gentle to moderate winds are expected throughout through mid-week. Looking ahead, a cold front followed by fresh to strong northeast winds along with building seas is forecast to approach the far NW corner of the area late Wed. $$ KONARIK