000 AXPZ20 KNHC 031005 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Oct 3 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis extending along 108W from 04N to 16N, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 240 nm east of the wave from from 08N to 10N and within 30 nm of 14N106W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near 10N75W to across central Panama and northern Costa Rica and to 09N92W to a 1008 mb low near 11N106W and to a 1008 mb low near 13N115W, and continues to 11N122W to 13N130W and to west of the area at 12N140W. Aside from convection related to the tropical wave as described above, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 125W and 128W, within 60 nm south of the trough between 119W and 125W and between 138W and 140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 101W and 104W, and within 60 nm south of the trough between 97W and 99W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A trough extends from near from near Cabo San Lazaro, Baja California south-southwest to near 15N115W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is west of the trough to 118W from 14N to 17N. This trough is will continue to drift northwestward into early next week. Winds throughout the basin are generally moderate or less with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Some moderate to fresh gap winds are occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. For the forecast, mainly gentle winds and moderate seas will be over these waters into at least mid-week. Moderate to fresh north winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will increase to strong speeds by early this afternoon. These winds will remain strong during the period, possibly reaching near gale force from Tue night through Thu night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle mainly east winds are N of the monsoon trough with gentle to moderate south winds to its S. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft due to a southwest long-period swell. Moderate to locally fresh gap winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Papagayo. For the forecast, light to gentle winds will continue prevail north of the monsoon trough through the period, with mainly moderate south to southwest winds south of the monsoon trough. A moderate cross-equatorial southwest swell will propagate through the regional waters during the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1010 mb low is drifting west near 13N134W. This low is associated to a broad area of low pressure that is located about 1400 nm west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Only isolated showers and thunderstorms are near the low. Overnight ASCAT data showed moderate to fresh northeast to east winds N of the low to 19N and between 128W and 136W. Seas within this area are 8 to 9 ft as was confirmed by a recent altimeter data pass. Similar marine conditions are expected through this evening as the low drifts westward. Development of this system is becoming more unlikely. Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for gradual development of the low by early next week. It is expected to continue to drift westward through the middle part of the upcoming week. Elsewhere, a 1008 mb low is centered near 13N115W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm of the low in the SW quadrant. Elsewhere, mainly moderate northeast winds are N of the monsoon trough and west of about 126W. Moderate southerly winds are to the S of the monsoon trough. N of the monsoon trough and E of 126W, winds are light to gentle in speeds as were depicted by overnight ASCAT data passes there. Moderate southerly winds are S of the monsoon trough E of 126W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft primarily in south to southwest swell. For the forecast, northwest swell is bringing seas of 8 to 9 ft to waters N of of about 28N and between 124W and 139W. The swell will decay by early this evening allowing for those seas to subside below 8 ft. Generally, moderate to fresh northeast winds will be N of 13N and W of 126W, with light to gentle winds N of 13N and E of 126W through tonight, then gentle to moderate winds are expected throughout through mid-week. Looking ahead, a cold front followed by fresh to strong northeast winds along with building seas is forecast to approach the far NW corner of the area late Wed. $$ Aguirre