000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030934 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Oct 03 2021 Corrected ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis extending along 107W from 04N to 16N, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm east of the wave from from 08N to 11N. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm east of the wave from 11N to 16N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...Corrected The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near 10N75W to across central Panama and southern Costa Rica and to 09N90W to a 1008 mb low near 11N105W and to 13N111W to a 1008 mb low near 12N115W, and continues to 11N122W to 13N128W and to west of the area at 13N140W. Aside from convection related to the tropical wave as described above, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm south of the trough between 119W and 124W and within 120 nm south of the trough between 124W and 126W and between 132W and 134W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 134W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A trough extends from near Cabo San Lazaro, Baja California south-southwest to 18N112W and to 13N115W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is west of the trough to 118W and from 14N to 17N. This trough is expected to move northwest and continue to gradually weaken into early next week. Winds throughout the basin are generally moderate or less with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Some moderate to locally fresh gap are occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. For the forecast, mainly gentle winds and moderate seas will dominate. However, moderate to fresh winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec may increase to strong speeds late Sun. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle mainly east winds are N of the monsoon trough with gentle to moderate south winds to its S. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft due to a southwest long-period swell. Moderate to locally fresh gap winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Papagayo. For the forecast, winds in the Papagayo region will pulse to moderate to locally fresh through tonight. Otherwise, light to gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough, with mainly moderate south to southwest winds south of the monsoon trough. A moderate cross-equatorial southwest swell will propagate through the regional waters during the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1010 mb low is drifting west near 12N134W. This low is associated to a broad area of low pressure that is located about 1400 nm west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Only isolated showers and thunderstorms are near the low. Latest ASCAT data shows moderate to fresh northeast to east winds N of the low to 19N and between 128W and 136W. Seas within this area are 8 to 9 ft as was confirmed by a recent altimeter data pass. Similar marine conditions are expected through Sun evening as the low drifts westward. Development of this system is becoming more unlikely. Environmental conditions could become a bit more conducive for slow development of the low by early next week. It is expected to continue to drift westward through the middle part of the upcoming week. Elsewhere, a 1008 mb low is centered near 12N115W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the low in the SW quadrant. Elsewhere, mainly moderate northeast winds are N of the monsoon trough and west of about 126W. Moderate southerly winds are to the S of the monsoon trough. N of the monsoon trough and E of 126W, winds are light to gentle in speeds as the latest ASCAT data passes demonstrate. Moderate southerly winds are S of the monsoon trough E of of 126W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft primarily in south to southwest swell. For the forecast, northerly swell will induce seas to 8 to 9 ft near 30N between 128W and 135W tonight into early Sun then subsiding by early Sun evening. Generally, moderate to fresh northeast winds will be N of 13N and W of 126W, with light to gentle winds N of 13N and E of 126W through Sun night. $$ Aguirre