000 AXPZ20 KNHC 021946 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Oct 2 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis extending along 107W from 04N to 16N, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 13N between 96W and 109W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near 10N76W across Panama and Costa Rica to 10N103W. It then continues to a 1009 mb low near 14N133W to 13N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 14N between 117W and 137W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 08N between 76W and 79W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A trough of low pressure extends from near Cabo San Lucas to 14N112W is producing numerous moderate to scattered strong convection from 18N to 23N between 108W and 113W. This trough is expected to move NW and gradually weaken into early next week. Winds throughout the basin are generally moderate or less with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Some moderate to locally fresh gap are occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. For the forecast, mainly gentle winds and moderate seas will dominate. However, moderate to fresh winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec may increase to strong late Sun. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle mainly E winds are N of the monsoon trough with gentle to moderate S winds to the S. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft in SW long period swell. Moderate to locally fresh gap winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Papagayo. For the forecast, winds in the Papagayo region will pulse to moderate to locally fresh through tonight. Otherwise, light to gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough, with mainly moderate south to southwest winds south of the monsoon trough. A moderate cross- equatorial southwest swell will propagate through the regional waters during the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1010 mb low pressure is drifting west near 14N133W. Although this low has become less organized today, numerous moderate to scattered strong convection exists from 10N to 14N between 124W and 137W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are noted N of this low, with seas of 8 to 10 ft extending from 13N to 18N W of 129W. Similar conditions are expected through the weekend as the low moves slowly west. Development of this system is becoming more unlikely. There is a low chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours. Elsewhere, 1009 mb low pressure is centered near 13N113W. Showers and thunderstorms along with seas of up to 8 ft are possible within about 90 nm of the center into tonight. In general, W of 125W, moderate NE winds are occurring N of the monsoon trough, with moderate S winds to the S. To the E of 125W, winds N of the trough are light to gentle, with continued moderate S winds to the S. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in mixed swell. For the forecast, northerly swell will induce seas to 8 to 9 ft near 30N between 128W and 135W this weekend, subsiding late Sun. Generally moderate winds will prevail W of 125W, with light to gentle winds maintain to the E, and N of the monsoon trough. $$ KONARIK