000 AXPZ20 KNHC 021521 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Oct 2 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis extending along 105W from 04N to 16N, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 15N between 96W and 109W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near 10N75W across northern Panama and southern Costa Rica to 10N90W. It continues then from 10N90W to 11N115W to a 1009 mb low near 14N132W...and extends further to 13N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 14N between 120W and 135W. Scattered moderate convection has developed from 03N to 08N between 76W and 79W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A trough of low pressure from around the southern tip of Baja California to 14N112W is producing numerous moderate to scattered strong convection within 60 nm of its axis. This trough is expected to move WNW and gradually weaken into early next week. Winds throughout the basin are generally moderate or less with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Some moderate to locally fresh gap winds have developed in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. For the forecast, gentle winds will continue to dominate the basin through the weekend. However, moderate to fresh gap winds will increase later today in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and strong winds are possible as early as Sun evening. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle mainly E winds are N of the monsoon trough with gentle to moderate S winds to the S. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft in SW long period swell. Moderate to locally fresh gap winds have developed in the Gulf of Papagayo. For the forecast, winds in the Papagayo region will continue to pulse to moderate to fresh through tonight. Otherwise, light to gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough, with mainly moderate south to southwest winds south of the monsoon trough. A moderate cross- equatorial southwest swell will propagate through the regional waters during the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1009 mb low pressure is nearly stationary along the monsoon trough near 14N132W. It is producing a broad area of disorganized moderate to strong convection from 10N to 15N between 126W and 138W. Fresh easterly winds are noted N of this low, with seas of 8 to 10 ft extending from 11N to 19N W of 128W. Similar conditions are expected through the weekend. Environmental conditions are somewhat conducive for slow development over the next several days, and a tropical depression could form early next week while the system begins to drift W. There is a low chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours. Elsewhere, weak low pressure has developed on the southern edge of a trough near the monsoon trough near 12N113W. Showers and thunderstorms along with seas of up to 8 ft are possible within about 60 nm of the center into tonight. In general, W of 125W, moderate to locally fresh NE winds are occurring N of the monsoon trough, with moderate S winds to the S. To the E of 125W, winds N of the trough are light to gentle, with continued moderate S winds to the S. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in mixed swell. For the forecast, northerly swell will induce seas to 8 to 9 ft near 30N between 126W and 139W this weekend, subsiding late Sun. Generally moderate winds will prevail W of 125W, with light to gentle winds maintain to the E, and N of the monsoon trough. $$ KONARIK