628 AXPZ20 KNHC 020912 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Oct 02 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis extending along 104W from 04N to 16N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm east of the axis from 11N to 13N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near 10N73W to across northern Panama and southern Costa Rica, to 10N85W to 10N95W to 11N110W to 12N120W to a 1009 mb low near 14N131W and to 13N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm north of the trough between 102W- 103W, and also within 180 nm south of trough between 128W-132W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of trough between 112W-116W, within 120 nm north of trough west of 133W, and within 60 nm south of trough between 93W-96W and between 119W-125W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A trough of low pressure along a position from just south of southern tip of the Baja California peninsula to 18N110W and to near 13N113W is producing numerous moderate to isolated strong convection within 30 nm of a line from 18N111W to 15N114W and to 13N113W. Similar activity is seen from 20N to 23N between 107W and 112W. The trough will continue to move in a general west-northwestward motion through the weekend. Winds are generally light to gentle in speeds over these waters, with seas of 4 to 6 ft due to a south to southwest swell. For the forecast, moderate to fresh gap winds are likely to develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec beginning this afternoon, and locally strong winds could form as early as Sun evening. night. Otherwise, light to gentle winds will prevail. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle east-southeast winds are north of the monsoon trough with gentle to locally moderate south-southwest winds to its south. Seas are mainly in the 4 to 6 ft range due to a south to southwest long-period swell. For the forecast, winds in the Papagayo region will pulse to moderate to fresh speeds through tonight. Otherwise, light to gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough, with mainly moderate south-southwest winds south of the monsoon trough. A moderate cross-equatorial southwest swell will propagate through the regional waters during the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1009 mb low pressure is centered along the monsoon trough near 14N132W. It is producing a broad area of numerous moderate to isolated strong convection from 11N to 16N between 128W and 139W. A broad area of moderate to fresh cyclonic winds is associated with this low, along with seas of 8 to 10 ft from 12N to 19N west of 127W. Similar marine conditions can be expected into Sun. Environmental conditions are somewhat conducive for slow development during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week while the system moves slowly westward. There is a low chance of tropical formation over the next 48 hours. Elsewhere, mainly moderate northeast winds continue north of the monsoon trough, with moderate south flow to its south. Seas range from 5 to 7 ft due to a mix of long-period north- northwest swell with south swell. For the forecast, northerly swell will induce seas to 8 to 9 ft near 30N between 126W and 139W this weekend, subsiding Sun night. Gentle to moderate north to northeast winds east of 123W will become generally light to gentle in speeds into early next week as high pressure north of the area weakens. $$ Aguirre