000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020356
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Oct 2 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis extending along 102W from 04N to 
16N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated showers and 
thunderstorms are within 60 nm east of the wave from 11N 
to 13N.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from northwestern Colombia near
10N76W to across northern Panama and southern Costa Rica, to 
10N85W to 10N95W to 12N109W to 11N120W to a 1009 mb low pressure
near 14N132W 1009 mb and to 13N140W. Numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection is within 180 nm south of trough
between 134W and 136W and also within 30 nm of trough between 
131W and 134W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 
nm of trough between 112W and 120W, and within 30 nm of trough 
between 120W and 130W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A trough of low pressure along a position from just south of 
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula to 17N111W and to 
13N112W is producing scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection within 30 nm of 18N111W and of 21N109W. Development
of this system is no longer anticipated due to unfavorable 
environmental conditions as it moves generally west-northwestward
around 8 kt, with little sensible weather associated with it. 
Throughout the basin, winds are light to gentle, with seas of
4 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh gap winds are likely to 
develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec this weekend, and locally 
strong winds could form as early as Sun night. Otherwise, light 
to gentle winds will prevail. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle east-southeast winds are north of the monsoon 
trough with gentle to locally moderate south-southwest winds to 
its south. Seas are mainly in the 4 to 6 ft range due to a south
to southwest long-period swell.

For the forecast, winds in the Papagayo region will pulse to 
moderate tonight speeds through Sat night. Otherwise, light to 
gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough, with 
mainly moderate south-southwest winds south of the monsoon 
trough. A moderate cross-equatorial southwest swell will 
propagate through the regional waters during the next several 
days. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1009 mb low pressure along the monsoon trough centered near 
14N132W is producing a broad area of numerous moderate to 
strong convection from 12N to 15N between 130W and 134W, and 
from 10N to 14N between 134W and 137W. An expansive area of 
moderate to fresh cyclonic winds are associated with this low, 
along with seas of 8 to 10 ft from 14N to 22N W of 125W. Similar 
marine conditions can be expected into Sun. Environmental 
conditions are somewhat conducive for slow development during 
the next several days, and a tropical depression could form over 
the weekend or early next week while the system drifts westward. 
There is a low chance of tropical formation over the next 48 
hours.

Elsewhere, mainly moderate northeast winds continue north of the
monsoon trough, with moderate south flow to its south. Seas 
range from 5 to 7 ft due to a mix of long period north-northwest
and south swell.

For the forecast, northerly swell will induce seas to 8 to 9 ft
near 30N between 125W and 137W this weekend, continuing into
early next week. Gentle to moderate north to northeast winds 
east of 123W will become generally light to gentle in speeds 
into early next week as high pressure north of the area weakens.

$$
Aguirre