000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011946
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Oct 1 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1930 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis extending along 100W from 04N to
16N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. It has an associated 1010 mb low to
its east at 10N96W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
06N to 11N between 96W and 105W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N80W to 11N110W to 12N140W. 

Aside from convection noted with the tropical wave depicted in 
the section above, numerous moderate to isolated strong 
convection is located from 10N to 15N between 132W and 140W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 11N between
85W and 92W and from 10N to 15N between 115W and 132W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A trough of low pressure from 21N108W to 13N112W is producing
scattered moderate convection. Any potential development of this
trough has become more unlikely due to unfavorable environmental
conditions. This trough is forecast to continue moving WNW at
around 5 kt through the weekend, with little sensible weather
associated with it. Throughout the basin, winds are light to
gentle, with seas of 4 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh gap winds are likely to 
develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec this weekend, and locally 
strong winds could form as early as Sun night. Otherwise, light 
to gentle winds will prevail. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle ESE winds are N of the monsoon trough with gentle
to locally moderate SSW winds to the S. Seas are mainly in the 
4-6 ft due to a south to southwest long- period swell.

For the forecast, winds in the Papagayo region will pulse to 
moderate tonight speeds through Sat night. Otherwise, light to 
gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough, with 
mainly moderate S-SW winds south of the monsoon trough. A 
moderate cross-equatorial southwest swell will propagate through 
the regional waters during the next several days. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1009 mb low pressure near 13N132W is producing a broad area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. An expansive area of
moderate to fresh cyclonic winds are associated with this low,
along with seas of 8 to 10 ft from 14N to 22N W of 125W. Similar
marine conditions can be expected into Sun. Environmental 
conditions are expected to be conducive for slow development
during the next several days, and a tropical depression could
form over the weekend or early next week while the system drifts
westward. There is a low chance of tropical formation over the
next 48 hours.

Elsewhere, mainly moderate NE winds continue N of the monsoon
trough, with moderate S flow to the S. Seas range from 5 to 7 ft
due to a mix of long period NNW and S swell. 

For the forecast, northerly swell will induce seas to 8 to 9 ft
near 30N between 125W and 137W this weekend, continuing into
early next week. Gentle to moderate north to northeast winds 
east of 123W will become generally light to gentle in speeds 
into early next week as high pressure north of the area weakens.

$$
KONARIK