000 AXPZ20 KNHC 011525 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Oct 1 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis extending along 99w from 04N to 16N, moving W around 15 kt. It has an associated 1010 mb low to its east at 10N95W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm either side of its axis near where it crosses the monsoon trough. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N82W to a 1010 mb low pressure near 10N95W to 13N117W to beyond 12N140W. Aside from convection noted with the tropical wave depicted in the section above, numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is located from 10N to 15N between 132W and 140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm S of the monsoon trough between 88W and 92W and from 10N to 15N between 115W and 132W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Scattered moderate convection within 120 nm WSW of Manzanillo, Mexico, is associated with a low pressure trough that is moving WNW at 5 to 10 mph. Some slow development is possible today before the system reaches an area of stronger upper level winds this evening. Winds associated with the low are gentle to moderate with nearby seas averaging 4 to 6 ft in SW swell. Elsewhere across the basin, winds are light to gentle. Seas are 3 to 5 ft, expect 5 to 7 ft offshore Baja California, where decaying NW swell is propagating into the region. For the forecast, moderate to fresh gap winds may develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec this weekend, increasing to fresh to strong by Sun night and continue to pulse during the night time through early next week. Otherwise, light to gentle winds will prevail. Large northwest swell propagating southeast and offshore of Baja California will subside by the end of the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle ESE winds are N of the monsoon trough with gentle to moderate SSW winds to the S. Seas are mainly in the 4-6 ft due to a south to southwest long- period swell. For the forecast, winds in the Papagayo region will pulse to moderate tonight speeds through Sat night. Otherwise, light to gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough, with mainly moderate S-SW winds south of the monsoon trough. A moderate cross-equatorial southwest swell will propagate through the regional waters during the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1008 mb low pressure near 13N131W is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The pressure gradient between this low and high pressure north of the area is inducing mainly fresh NE to E winds between the monsoon trough and 22N to the W of 125W. Seas within this area of winds have reached the range of 8-10 ft. By this evening, the gradient is forecast to slacken enough to allow for the winds to diminish to moderate to fresh speeds, however, the seas of 8-10 ft will continue due to long- period north swell. These marine conditions are expected to last through late Sat. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some slow development of the low pressure over the next several days, and a tropical depression could form this weekend or early next week while the low moves W at 5 to 10 kt. Elsewhere, mainly moderate NE winds continue N of the monsoon trough, with moderate S flow to the S. Seas range from 5 to 7 ft due to a mix of long period NNW and S swell. More significant NNW swell N of 25N around 120W has subsided such that seas have fallen below 8 ft. For the forecast, reinforcing fresh northerly swell will induce seas back up to around 8 ft near 30N between 125W-137W into the weekend. Gentle to moderate north to northeast winds east of 123W will become generally light to gentle in speeds late today and through the weekend as high pressure north of the area weakens. $$ KONARIK