000 AXPZ20 KNHC 291549 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Sep 29 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends its axis along 82W from the western Caribbean Sea southward across western Panama into the eastern Pacific Ocean, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted N of 06N between 80W-86W. A tropical wave has its axis along 113W from 04N to 16N, moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N-14N between 110W-115W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to a 1010 mb low pressure near 08N90W to 09N93W, then resumes near 16N103W to 1011 mb low near 16N104W to 1010 mb low near 12N127W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N-13N and E of 100W, and from 10N-17N between 103W-130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad area of low pressure is located a few hundred nm south- southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico with isolated to scattered showers. Associated winds are moderate to locally fresh on the southern side with seas of 6 to 7 ft. Moderate NW-N winds are noted west of Baja California. NW swell is building seas to 6 to 9 ft west of Baja California Norte. Fresh southerly winds are noted in the northern Gulf of California with seas to 4 ft. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere offshore of Mexico, locally moderate in the central Gulf of California, and along the coast near the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft elsewhere in mixed long period swell. For the forecast, the broad area of low pressure is forecast to move slowly toward the W-NW at about 5 kt away from the coast of Mexico, and environmental conditions could allow for some slow development of this system before upper-level winds become less conducive on Fri. Moderate NW-N winds offshore of Baja California will diminish by the end of the week. Moderate to fresh southerly winds in the northern Gulf of California will diminish on Thu. Moderate to fresh gap winds may develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec this weekend, increasing to fresh to strong Sun night. Otherwise, light to gentle winds will prevail. Large NW swell propagating southeast offshore of Baja California will subside by the end of the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate NE-E winds are noted in the Papagayo region, with light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, higher in and near thunderstorms including in the vicinity of the Gulf of Panama. Moderate S-SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Seas are mainly in the 5 to 7 ft range in mixed long period SW and NW swell. For the forecast, winds in the Papagayo region will occasionally pulse to moderate. Otherwise, light to gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough, with mainly moderate S-SW winds south of the monsoon trough. A moderate cross-equatorial SW swell will propagate through the regional waters during the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails across the remainder of the basin. NW-N swell is building seas to 8 to 11 ft in its wake, highest near 29N122W. Moderate to locally fresh trades are noted elsewhere north of the convergence zone, while gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail south of the convergence zone. Seas are mainly in the 5 to 7 ft range across the remainder of the open waters, locally to 8 ft. For the forecast, the NW-N swell will continue to propagate through the northern and central waters through late Thu while gradually decaying. No other large swell set is forecast to impact the discussion area during the next several days. Trades are forecast to diminish this weekend into early next week as the pressure gradient loosens. $$ ERA