560 AXPZ20 KNHC 290805 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Sep 29 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0730 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 81W from the western Caribbean Sea southward across western Panama into the eastern Pacific Ocean, moving slowly west at 5 to 10 kt. Associated convection is described below. A tropical wave has its axis along 112W from 03N to 17N moving west at around 10 kt. Associated convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N75W to 1010 mb low pressure near 10N77W to 1010 mb low pressure near 07N89W to 10N95W, then resumes from 16N103W to 1011 mb low pressure near 15N106W to 1010 mb low pressure near 13N123W to 11N137W. The ITCZ extends from 11N137W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 11N to 13N between 87W and 93W, and within 11N98W to 08N80W to 01N80W to 04N103W to 11N98W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm either side of the monsoon trough between 110W and 136W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad area of low pressure is located a few hundred nm south- southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico with isolated to scattered showers. Associated winds are moderate to locally fresh on the southern side with seas of 6 to 7 ft. Moderate NW-N winds are noted west of Baja California. NW swell is building seas to 6 to 9 ft west of Baja California Norte. Fresh southerly winds are noted in the northern Gulf of California with seas to 4 ft. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere offshore of Mexico, locally moderate in the central Gulf of California, and along the coast near the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft elsewhere in mixed long period swell. For the forecast, the broad area of low pressure is forecast to move slowly toward the W-NW at about 5 kt away from the coast of Mexico, and environmental conditions could allow for some slow development of this system before upper-level winds become less conducive on Fri. Moderate NW-N winds offshore of Baja California will diminish by the end of the week. Moderate to fresh southerly winds in the northern Gulf of California will diminish Thu. Moderate to fresh gap winds may develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec this weekend, increasing to fresh to strong Sun night. Otherwise, light to gentle winds will prevail. Large NW swell propagating southeast offshore of Baja California will subside by the end of the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate NE-E winds are noted in the Papagayo region, with light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, higher in and near thunderstorms including in the vicinity of the Gulf of Panama. Moderate S-SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Seas are mainly in the 5 to 7 ft range in mixed long period SW and NW swell. For the forecast, winds in the Papagayo region will occasionally pulse to moderate. Otherwise, light to gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough, with mainly moderate S-SW winds south of the monsoon trough. A moderate cross-equatorial SW swell will propagate through the regional waters during the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remnants of a former cold front are located from near Baja California Norte at 29N115W to 26N130W to 25N140W. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds are noted behind the remnant boundary, while associated NW-N swell is building seas to 8 to 12 ft in its wake, highest near 30N124W. Moderate to locally fresh trades are noted elsewhere north of the convergence zone, while gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail south of the convergence zone. Seas are mainly in the 5 to 7 ft range across the remainder of the open waters, locally to 8 ft. For the forecast, the NW-N swell will continue to propagate through the northern and central waters through late Thu while gradually decaying. No other large swell set is forecast to impact the discussion area during the next several days. Trades are forecast to diminish this weekend into early next week as the pressure gradient loosens. $$ Lewitsky