000 AXPZ20 KNHC 290138 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Sep 29 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0120 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 80W/81W from the western Caribbean Sea southward across Panama into the eastern Pacific Ocean, moving west at around 10 kt. Associated convection is described below. A tropical wave has its axis along 111W from 03N to 17N moving west at around 10 kt. Associated convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N75W to 11N83W to 1010 mb low pressure near 08N88W to 1011 mb low pressure near 14N106W to 1010 mb low pressure near 11N123W to 11N134W. The ITCZ extends from 11N134W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 09N between 77W and 100W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is noted within 15N135W to 15N116W to 08N123W to 09N137W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Broad low pressure is located a few hundred nm south of Manzanillo, Mexico near 15N108W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 18N105W to 16N101W to 11N110W to 13N112W to 18N105W. Associated winds are currently 20 kt or less and seas are less than 8 ft. Moderate to fresh NW-N winds are noted west of Baja California, highest offshore of Baja California Norte where the pressure gradient has tightened behind a decaying/remnant frontal boundary. Associated NW swell is building seas to 6 to 8 ft west of Baja California Norte. Fresh southerly winds are noted in the northern Gulf of California with seas to 4 ft. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere offshore of Mexico, locally moderate in the central Gulf of California, and along the coast near the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft elsewhere in mixed long period swell. For the forecast, the broad area of low pressure is gradually becoming better defined, and conditions are favorable for some slow development to occur during the next few days while the low moves slowly WNW, well offshore the coast of mainland Mexico. Moderate NW-N winds offshore of Baja California will diminish by the end of the week. Moderate to fresh southerly winds in the northern Gulf of California will diminish Thu. Moderate to fresh gap winds may develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec this weekend, increasing to fresh to strong Sun night. Otherwise, light to gentle winds will prevail. Large NW swell propagating southeast offshore of Baja California will subside by the end of the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate NE-E winds are noted in the Papagayo region, with light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, higher in and near thunderstorms including in the vicinity of the Gulf of Panama. Moderate S-SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Seas are mainly in the 5-7 ft range in mixed long-period SW and NW swell. For the forecast, winds in the Papagayo region will occasionally pulse to moderate. Otherwise, light to gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough, with mainly moderate S-SW winds south of the monsoon trough. A moderate cross-equatorial SW swell will propagate through the regional waters during the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remnants of a former cold front are located from near Baja California Norte at 30N116W to 27N130W to 26N140W. Fresh N-NE winds are noted behind the remnant boundary, while associated NW-N swell is building seas to 8 to 11 ft in its wake. Moderate to locally fresh trades are noted elsewhere north of the convergence zone, while gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail south of the convergence zone. Seas are mainly in the 5 to 7 ft range across the remainder of the open waters. For the forecast, the trough will continue to move and dissipate by early Wed afternoon. The northwest to north swell will continue to propagate through the northern and central waters through late Thu while gradually decaying. No other large swell set is forecast to impact the discussion area during the next several days. $$ Lewitsky