000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281601
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Sep 28 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 109W from 02N to 17N moving 
west at 10-15 kt. This wave is moving through a very moist 
environment. Associated convection is described below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 1010 mb low pressure over 
northern Colombia near 10N76W to 10N85W to low pressure near
09N89W 1010 mb to 14N105W to low pressure near 12N123W to 1010 
mb and to 11N130W. ITCZ extends from 11N130W to beyond 10N140W.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is seen from 03N to 09N
between 77W-89W, and within 60 nm either side of the trough 
between 97W-98W. Scattered moderate within 120 nm south of trough
between 121W-125W, within 60 nm north of trough between 115W-
119W and within 30 nm of trough between 132W-136W.


OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh NW-N winds are noted west of Baja California,
the strongest offshore of Baja California Sur. Mainly light to
gentle winds prevail elsewhere offshore of Mexico, except locally
moderate to fresh in the central and northern Gulf of California.
Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range in mixed long period swell, 
except 3 to 5 ft from Cabo Corrientes to the entrance to the Gulf
of California, and 1 to 3 ft in the central and northern Gulf of
California, locally to 4 ft.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds offshore of Baja 
California and in the northern Gulf of California will diminish 
somewhat by mid-week. A tropical wave currently well south of 
southern Mexico may bring increasing winds and seas to the 
vicinity of the Revillagigedo Islands and southern Baja 
California by the end of the week into the weekend as low 
pressure may develop along it and move northwestward. Otherwise,
mainly gentle winds will prevail offshore of Mexico through the 
week and into the weekend. Large NW swell will impact the waters 
west of Baja California by tonight, subsiding by the end of the 
week. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are noted in the Papagayo region.
Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere north of the monsoon
trough, higher in and near thunderstorms including in the
vicinity of the Gulf of Panama. Moderate S-SW winds prevail 
south of the monsoon trough. Seas are mainly in the 5-7 ft range
in mixed long period SW and NW swell.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh offshore winds will pulse 
across the Papagayo region through mid-week. Otherwise, light to 
gentle winds will prevail north of he monsoon trough, with mainly
moderate S-SW winds south of the monsoon trough.
Cross-equatorial southwest swell will propagate through the 
regional waters during the next several days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A dissipating cold front is noted from 30N129W to 29N140W with 
fresh NE winds north of it, and building seas in NW-N swell of 8 
to 9 ft. A weak ridge extends across the waters south of the 
front to 27.5N with light to gentle winds under it. An area of 
moderate to fresh NE winds are noted from 15N to 25N west of 
130W. Mainly moderate trades prevail elsewhere north of the 
convergence zone. Mainly moderate southerly flow is noted south 
of the convergence zone, locally fresh from 07N to 12N between 
110W and 120W. The fresh winds are helping to support seas of 8 
to 9 ft across that area. Seas of 5-7 ft are elsewhere across 
the open waters.

For the forecast, the front will slowly sink south through mid- 
week, while dissipating to a remnant trough. Associated NW-N 
swell will continue to arrive behind it, building seas to 8 to 
11 ft across much of the waters north of 20N. Winds will freshen 
north of the convergence zone from the middle through the end of 
the week as high pressure builds in behind the decaying front or
trough. These winds combined with the NW-N swell will support a 
ribbon of seas around 8 ft from north of the convergence zone to 
20N and west of 120W. More tranquil marine conditions are likely 
during the upcoming weekend.

$$
Aguirre