000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270927
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Sep 27 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 102W, from 03N to 14N, moving west at 
10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N-14N 
between 100W-104W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...The monsoon 
trough extends from 10N86W to 12N120W to 10N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 04N-10N between 92W-100W. 
Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted from 07N-16N 
between 110W-135W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh N-NE winds prevail across the Gulf of Tehuantepec area 
today. Associated seas across the area range between 5 to 7 ft. 
Fresh northerly winds are noted over the waters west of the Baja 
California peninsula. Moderate NW-N winds are pulsing in the 
northern portion of the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds
are noted elsewhere. Seas are 4 to 7 ft across these open 
waters, and 2 to 4 ft in the Gulf of California. 

Mainly moderate NW-N winds will prevail west of Baja California,
pulsing to fresh during the afternoon through evening hours. 
S-SW winds will pulse to moderate to fresh in the northern Gulf 
of California. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will prevail
through Tue. Large NW swell will impact the waters west of Baja 
California by late Tue as a dissipating cold front begins to 
sink southward across the region. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh offshore winds prevail across and downwind of the
Papagayo region, with light to gentle winds elsewhere north of 
the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate W-SW winds are south of 
the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4 to 7 ft range from offshore
of Colombia northward and offshore of Ecuador in SW swell.

Moderate to fresh offshore winds will pulse each night across 
the Papagayo region through midweek. Otherwise, light to gentle 
winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough, with mainly 
moderate winds south of the monsoon trough. Cross equatorial SW 
swell will continue to propagate through the regional waters 
through early Tue, and are expected to peak this evening.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface trough extends from 23N132W to 17N132W. Moderate NE-E 
winds are northwest of the trough, where seas are generally 7 ft.
Broad and weak ridging and gentle to moderate trades dominate 
the remainder of the open waters north of the convergence zone 
and west of 120W. Gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail 
south of the convergence zone. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range 
north of 11N, and 6 to 7 ft south of 11N, except to 9 ft between
103W and 118W.

Winds associated with the trough along 132W will diminish today 
as it shifts westward and weakens. A cold front is expected to 
move into the NW waters Mon night into early Tue and quickly 
weaken as it moves southward and gradually dissipates along 21N 
by the end of the week. Associated long period NW swell is 
expected to build seas to 8 to 11 ft to the west of 120W, 
spreading southward through the middle of the week.

$$
ERA