000 AXPZ20 KNHC 261605 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Sep 26 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 97W, from 02N to 15N, moving west at around 10 kt. Precipitable water animations and wave diagnostics show a clear wave signal propagating westward off of Central America the past couple of days. Associated convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 11.5N72W to low pres 1010 mb near 11N83W to 10N87W to 10.5N113W to low pres 1012 mb near 12N121W to low pres 1014 mb near 12N133.5W. The ITCZ extends from 08.5N135W to 07.5N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted N of 04.5N E of 81.5W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 07.5N to 14.5N between 93W and 109W, N of 16N to Mexican coast between 101W and 106W, and from 07.5N to 16.5N between 111W and 132W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong N-NE winds prevail across the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning, extending downwind to near 14N96.5W. Associated seas across the area are 6 to 8 ft. Moderate NW-N winds are noted west of Baja California and in the central Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are 4 to 7 ft across the remainder of the open waters, and 2 to 4 ft in the Gulf of California, except 3 ft or less in the northern Gulf. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds will continue across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Mon morning. Mainly moderate NW-N winds will prevail west of Baja California, pulsing to fresh during the afternoon through evening hours. S-SW winds will pulse to moderate to fresh in the northern Gulf of California. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will prevail. Large NW swell will impact the waters west of Baja California by late Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh offshore winds prevail across the Papagayo region, with light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate S-SW winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4 to 7 ft range from offshore of Colombia northward, and 6 to 8 ft in SW swell offshore of Ecuador. Moderate to fresh offshore winds will pulse across the Papagayo region, occasionally to strong. Otherwise, light to gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough, with mainly moderate winds south of the monsoon trough. Cross equatorial SW swell will continue to propagate through the regional waters through early Tue, and expected to peak early this evening. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface trough extends from 24N130W to 17N131W. Associated convection has dissipated. Moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds are northwest of the trough. Broad and weak ridging and gentle to moderate trades dominate the remainder of the open waters north of the convergence zone. Gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail south of the convergence zone. Seas are in the 5 to 8 ft range north of 11N, and 6 to 7 ft south of 11N, except to 8 ft between 93W and 125W. Winds associated with the trough along 130W will diminish through late Sun as it shifts westward and weakens. A cold front is expected to move into the NW waters Mon night into early Tue and quickly weaken as it moves southward and gradually dissipates along 21N by the end of the week. Associated long period NW swell is expected to build seas to 8 to 11 ft to the west of 120W, spreading southward through the middle of this coming week. $$ Stripling