000 AXPZ20 KNHC 252133 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Sep 25 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has been added to the 1800 UTC analysis along 94W, from 03N to 15N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Precipitable water animations and wave diagnostics show a clear wave signal propagating westward off of Central America the past two days. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N77W to low pres 1009 mb near 11.5N118W to 10N126W. The ITCZ extends from 10N126W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 05N to 15N between 90W and 101W, from 10N to 13.5N between 101W and 113W, and from 06.5N to 16N between 116W and 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh N-NE winds continue this afternoon across the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas of 5 to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate NW-N winds are noted west of Baja California . Light to gentle winds are elsewhere offshore of Mexico. Seas continue at 4 to 6 ft in a mixed of long period swells offshore of Mexico, except 3 ft or less in the central and southern Gulf of California. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds will continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Sun. Mainly moderate NW-N winds will prevail west of Baja California, pulsing locally to fresh during the afternoon through evening hours. S-SW winds will pulse to moderate to fresh in the northern Gulf of California. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will prevail. New large NW swell will impact the waters west of Baja California by late Tue as a cold front sinks southward across the northern offshore waters Tue night through Wed. Seas are expected to peak at 8-11 ft across the Baja Norte waters Wed morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh offshore winds prevail this afternoon across the Papagayo region, with light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate S-SW winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range from offshore of Colombia northward, and 5 to 7 ft in building SW swell offshore of Ecuador. Moderate to fresh offshore winds will pulse in the Papagayo region, briefly to fresh to strong tonight and Sun night. Otherwise, light to gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough, with mainly moderate winds south of the monsoon trough. Cross equatorial SW swell will propagate through the waters through early Tue. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface trough is along 130W from 16N to 21N. Isolated moderate convection is noted north of the trough from 22N to 23N. Moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds are N through W of the trough. Broad and week ridging and gentle to moderate trades dominate the remainder of the open waters north of the ITCZ. Gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail south of the convergence zone. Seas are in the 5 to 8 ft range north of 11N, and 6 to 7 ft south of 11N, except 8 to 9 ft in southerly swell south of the equator and west of 95W. Winds associated with the trough along 130W will gradually diminish through late Sun as it shifts westward and weakens. A cold front is expected to move into the NW waters Mon night into early Tue and quickly weaken as it moves southward and gradually dissipates along 21N by the end of the week. Associated long period NW swell is expected to build seas to 8 to 10 ft to the west of 120W, spreading southward through the middle of next week. $$ Stripling