000 AXPZ20 KNHC 250220 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Sep 25 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0130 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 127W/128W from 05N to 15N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 12N between 121W and 129W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 1008 mb low pressure over northern Colombia near 11N74W to near the Papagayo region at 10N86W to 11N115W to 09N127W. The ITCZ extends from 10N129W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 108W and 121W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 09N between 86W and 91W, from 11N to 16N between 94W and 105W, from 09N to 11N between 103W and 108W, and from 06N to 14N between 132W and 140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is also noted within 75 nm of the coasts of Central America and Mexico between 80W and 102W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to near gale force N-NE winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas of 5 to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate NW-N winds are noted west of Baja California and also offshore of Cabo Corrientes. Moderate to fresh SW-W winds are pulsing in the northern Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere offshore of Mexico. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in a mixed of long period swells offshore of Mexico, except 3 ft or less in the central and northern Gulf of California. For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly gap winds will continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Sun morning. Mainly moderate NW-N winds will prevail west of Baja California, pulsing locally to fresh at times. S-SW winds will pulse to moderate to fresh in the northern Gulf of California. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will prevail. A set of large NW swell may impact the waters west of Baja California by the middle of next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh winds are in the Papagayo region, with light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate S-SW winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4 to 5 ft range from offshore of Colombia northward, and 5 to 7 ft in building SW swell offshore of Ecuador. For the forecast, moderate to fresh offshore winds will pulse in the Papagayo region. Otherwise, light to gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough, with mainly moderate winds south of the monsoon trough. SW swell will propagate across the waters through early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1011 mb low pressure area is analyzed near 20N128W with a trough from 23N126W to the low to 17N128W. Isolated moderate convection is noted just east of the trough. Moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds are also noted near the trough. Broad and week ridging and gentle to moderate trades dominate the remainder of the open waters north of the convergence zone. Gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail south of the convergence zone. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range north of 10N, and 6 to 8 ft south of 10N, except to 9 ft in southerly swell south of the equator and west of 100W. For the forecast, winds associated with the low north of the convergence zone will gradually diminish over the weekend as the low shifts westward and weakens. A cold front is expected to move into the NW waters Mon night into early Tue and quickly weaken as it moves southward. Associated long period NW swell is expected to build seas to 8 to 10 ft, spreading southward through the middle of next week. $$ Lewitsky