000 AXPZ20 KNHC 242155 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Sep 24 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 126W from 07N to 18N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 17N between 116W and 128W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from low pres 1008 mb near 11N74W to 09N90W to 11.5N98W to 11.5N112W to 09.5N123W. The ITCZ begins near 09.5N123W to 11.5N132W to beyond 12.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06.5N to 12N between 81W and 91W, and from 07.5N to 12.5N between 132W and 140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 08N to 15.5N between 91W and 108W, and from 07N to 17N between 110W and 128W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong northerly gap winds to 25 kt continue across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and downstream to near 13N96W this afternoon, as captured by midday ASCAT data. Peak seas have subsided to 7 ft this afternoon. These winds are being forced by high pressure across the western Gulf of Mexico behind a stationary front across the southern Gulf of Mexico. Elsewhere across the offshore waters, the NE Pacific ridge extends weakly SE to near 26N114W. This pattern is producing a weak pressure gradient across the offshore waters of Baja, and resulting in gentle to moderate NW to N winds along the Baja offshore waters with seas 4 to 6 ft. Light to gentle southerly winds are inside the Gulf of California, and light and variable across the SW Mexico offshore waters. Seas across these areas are 3 ft and 5-6 ft, respectively. A deep layered upper level low is centered across extreme Baja California Norte, and is promoting active convection across the Gulf of California and adjacent land areas north of 28.5N. Northerly gap winds will continue across the Tehuantepec region through early Sunday evening, with seas building to near 8 ft downstream each morning. Gentle to moderate NW to N winds will continue along the Baja offshore waters through Mon then become moderate to fresh on Tue as high pressure begins to build across the region. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will dominate. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle variable winds will dominate across the Central America, Colombia and Ecuador offshore waters through early Sat. On Sat, S to SW gentle to moderate winds are expected mainly S of 08N and moderate to fresh NE to E winds will begin to pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo. These conditions will prevail through Tue. Otherwise,cross equatorial SW swell will reach the forecast area early Sat, building seas to 6-7 ft across the regional waters through the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The northern forecast waters west of 122W remain under the influence of a weak surface ridge centered on a 1024 mb high NW of the forecast area near 35N140W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and 1010 mb low pres centered near 20N127W supports an area of moderate to locally fresh NE winds roughly from 19N to 25N west of 125W. Seas are generally 6-8 ft across this zone in mixed wind waves and NW swell. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 210 nm across the NE quadrant of this low. Winds across this area will gradually diminish over the weekend as the low shifts westward and weakens. Looking ahead, a cold front is expected to move into the NW waters Mon night into early Tue and quickly weaken as it moves southward. Associated long period NW swell is expected to raise seas to 8-10 ft. $$ Stripling