000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241556
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Sep 24 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 124W from 07N to 18N, moving
west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
noted from 06.5N to 17N between 115W and 127W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from low pres 1009 mb near 11N74W to 
09N89W to 12N98W to 10N114W. The ITCZ begins near 10N114W to
11N135W to beyond 12.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted from 06.5N to 15N between 79W and 96W, from
09N to 15N between 96W and 106W, and from 08.5N to 12N between
130W and 138W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted 
from 06.5N to 17N between 110W and 127W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong northerly gap winds to near 30 kt continue across the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec and downstream to near 12.5N97W with seas to
8 ft this morning. These winds are being forced by high pressure
across eastern Mexico behind a stationary front across the 
southern Gulf of Mexico. Elsewhere across the offshore waters,
the Pacific ridge has weakened and shifted westward while 
surface low pressure has deepened along the Baja California 
peninsula. This is resulting in gentle to moderate NW to N winds
along the Baja offshore waters with seas 4 to 6 ft. Light to 
gentle winds are inside the Gulf of California and across the SW
Mexico offshore waters with seas to 3 ft and 5 ft, respectively.

Northerly gap winds will continue across the Tehuantepec region 
through Sunday early in the evening. Gentle to moderate NW to N 
winds will continue along the Baja offshore waters through Tue 
while light to gentle winds will dominate elsewhere. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle variable winds will dominate across the Central
America, Colombia and Ecuador offshore waters through Sat. On
Sat, S to SW gentle to moderate winds are expected mainly S of
07N and moderate to fresh NE to E winds will begin to pulse in
the Gulf of Papagayo. These conditions will prevail through Tue. 
Otherwise,cross equatorial SW swell will reach the forecast area 
early Sat, building seas to 6-7 ft across the regional waters 
through the weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The northern forecast waters west of 122W remain under the 
influence of a surface ridge centered NW of the forecast area. 
The pressure gradient between the ridge and 1010 mb low pres 
centered near 20.5N126.5W supports an area of moderate to 
locally fresh NE winds roughly from 16N to 25N west of 125W. Seas
are generally 7-9 ft across this zone in mixed wind waves and NW
swell. Winds across this area will gradually diminish over the 
weekend as the low shifts westward and weakens. Looking ahead, a 
cold front is expected to move into the NW waters Mon night into 
early Tue and quickly weaken as it moves southward. Associated 
long period NW swell is expected to raise seas to 8-10 ft.

$$
Stripling