750 AXPZ20 KNHC 240922 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Sep 24 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 122W from 05N to 19N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 17N between 114W and 126W. A tropical wave is analyzed along 139W from 10N to 19N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Associated active convection is confined to along the ITCZ and is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 11N98W to 09N120W. The ITCZ begins near 12N130W and continues beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 04N between 83W and 90W, and from 07N to 13N W of 134W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is N of 07N between 90W and 103W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong to near gale force northerly gap winds continue across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and downstream to near 12N with seas to 8 ft. These winds are being forced by high pressure across eastern Mexico behind a stationary front across the southern Gulf of Mexico. The ridge has weakened and shift westward while surface low pressure has deepened along the Baja California peninsula. This is resulting in gentle to moderate NW winds along the Baja offshore waters with seas to 5 ft. Light to gentle winds are along the Gulf of California and across the SW Mexico offshore waters with seas to 3 ft and 5 ft, respectively. Northerly gap winds will continue across the Tehuantepec region through Sunday, pulsing to strong each late night and early morning. Surface ridging will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting mainly gentle to moderate NW to N winds through Mon. Light to gentle winds will dominate over the SW Mexico offshore waters. Otherwise, mainly light and variable winds are expected across the entire Gulf of California through Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate west to southwesterly winds will continue across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia and Ecuador today, then will diminish to light to gentle through Sat. Winds will increase again to gentle to moderate Sat evening and continue through early next week. Light to gentle variable winds are forecast for the offshore waters N of 10N with pulses of moderate NE to E winds in the Gulf of Papagayo over the weekend. Cross equatorial SW swell will reach the forecast area early Sat, building seas to 6-7 ft across the regional waters through the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The northern forecast waters west of 120W remain under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by 1025 mb high pressure centered NW of the forecast area. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a low pres centered near 19N124W supports an area of moderate to locally fresh NE winds roughly from 16N to 25N west of 120W. Seas are generally 7-9 ft across this zone in mixed wind waves and NW swell. Winds across this area will gradually diminish over the weekend as the low shifts westward and weakens. Looking ahead, a cold front is expected to move into the NW waters early Tue and quickly weaken as it moves southward. Associated NW swell is expected to raise seas to 8-10 ft. $$ Ramos