000 AXPZ20 KNHC 200324 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Sep 20 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0340 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is along 99W and N of 06N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 93W and 103W. The axis of a tropical wave is along 108W from 07N to 20N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 12N between 105W and 112W. The axis of a tropical wave is along 121W from 07N to 17N, moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 120W and 124W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N to 1010 mb low pressure near 11.5N114W to 09N120W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 80W and 93W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 11N between 86W and 90W, and from 06N to 10N between 125W and 132W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 18N to 22N between 106W and 111W, associated with a surface trough offshore of Cabo Corrientes extending southwestward. Broad surface ridging extends across the waters west of Baja California with moderate NW-N winds there. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere offshore of Mexico, except locally moderate in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and also offshore of Colima and Jalisco. Seas are mainly in the 4 to 7 ft range in a mixed swell, highest offshore of Baja California Sur, and except 2 to 4 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, surface ridging west of California will promote moderate to fresh NW winds along the west coast of Baja California through tonight. NW swell will build seas west of Baja California Norte Mon night through Tue in the vicinity of a frontal boundary that will dissipate by midweek. A Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will begin Tue night and may bring near-gale conditions Wed through Fri night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh offshore winds are in the Papagayo region. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere north of 06N, with moderate to locally fresh S-SW winds south of 06N. A SW swell is promoting seas in the 5 to 7 ft range across the equatorial waters, and 4 to 6 ft across the Central American waters. For the forecast, moderate SW swell across the equatorial waters will subside tonight. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the Papagayo region through the early part of the week. Otherwise, tranquil conditions should prevail through the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front is approaching 30N from the northwest. A broad surface ridge prevails south of the cold front across the open waters north of the convergence zone. A 1010 mb low pressure area is along the monsoon trough near 11.5N114W, with a surface trough extending northeast of the low to 16N113W to 19N107W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 75 nm northwest of the trough. Gentle to moderate trades are noted north of the convergence zone, locally fresh south of 21N, with gentle to moderate southerly flow south of the convergence zone. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in a mix of S and NW swell across the open waters. For the forecast, the moderate SW swell across the equatorial waters will diminish through tonight. The cold front will weaken as stall as it sags just south of 30N through the early part of the week, while associated northerly swell builds seas to around 8 ft north of it. Gradual development with the area of low pressure along the monsoon trough will be possible while it moves at 10 to 15 kt through the latter of the week. At the very least, winds may increase to fresh to strong with seas to around 8 ft. $$ Ramos