000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190911
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Sep 19 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0845 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 94W and N of 05N, moving 
west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 
06N to 11N between 93W and 95W.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 103W and N of 05N, moving 
west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the
vicinity of the wave axis between 101W and 106W.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 118W from 05N to 17N, 
moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 09N
to 12N between 115W and 118W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 11N107W to 10N120W to 
a low pres near 12N126W 1013 mb to 12N134W. The ITCZ continues 
from 12N134W to 10N140W. Aside from the convection related to 
the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate convection
is noted within 150 nm S of the monsoon trough between 92W and 
113W, and from 08N to 17N between 122W and 133W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Broad surface ridging extends across the waters west of Baja 
California with moderate to fresh winds there. Light to gentle
winds are noted elsewhere offshore of Mexico. Seas are mainly in
the 4 to 6 ft range in a mixed swell, except 2 to 4 ft in the 
Gulf of California.

For the forecast, surface ridging west of California will 
promote moderate to fresh NW winds along the west coast of Baja 
California today. NW swell will build seas west of Baja 
California Norte Mon night through Tue night in the vicinity of 
a frontal boundary that will dissipate by midweek. A Gulf of 
Tehuantepec gap wind event should begin Tue night and may bring 
near-gale conditions Wed through Thu night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh offshore winds are in the Papagayo region.
Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere north of 04N, with
moderate S-SW winds south of 04N. A SW swell is promoting seas in
the 5 to 7 ft range across the equatorial waters and 4 to 6 ft
across the Central American waters. 

For the forecast, moderate SW swell across the equatorial waters
will subside by tonight. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse in 
the Papagayo region through today. Otherwise, tranquil 
conditions should prevail through Wed night. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad surface ridging prevails across the open waters north 
of the convergence zone. Gentle to moderate trades are noted 
north of the convergence zone, with gentle to moderate southerly 
flow south of the convergence zone. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in a mix 
of S and NW swell across the open waters.

For the forecast, little change in winds across the basin is 
anticipated and no tropical cyclone activity is expected through 
the next several days. The moderate SW swell across the 
equatorial waters will diminish today. A moderate NW swell may 
reach our northern border on Mon and Tue, subsiding on Wed.

$$
ERA