000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190340
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Sep 19 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 93W and N of 05N, moving 
west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
04N to 07N between 90W and 93W, and N of 14N between 91W and 
95W.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 103W and N of 05N, moving 
west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 
06N to 10N between 103W and 109, and N of 16N between 100W and
107W. 

The axis of a tropical wave is along 116W from 05N to 17N, 
moving west at 5 to 10 kt. No significant convection is related
to this wave at this time.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 14N107W to 11N120W to 
a low pres near 13N131W 1011 mb to 11N135W. The ITCZ continues
from 11N135W to 10N140W. Aside from the convection related to 
the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate convection
is noted within 150 nm S of the monsoon trough between 98W and 
110W, and from 10N to 17N between 125W and 135W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Broad surface ridging extends across the waters west of Baja 
California with moderate to fresh winds there. Light to gentle
winds are noted elsewhere offshore of Mexico. Seas are mainly in
the 4 to 6 ft range in a mixed swell, except 2 to 4 ft in the 
Gulf of California.

For the forecast, surface ridging west of California will 
promote moderate to fresh NW winds along the west coast of Baja 
California this weekend. NW swell will build seas west of Baja 
California Norte Mon night through Tue night. A Gulf of 
Tehuantepec gap wind event should begin Tue night and may bring 
near-gale conditions Wed through Thu night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh offshore winds are in the Papagayo region.
Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere north of 04N, with
moderate S-SW winds south of 04N. A SW swell is promoting seas in
the 5 to 7 ft range across the equatorial waters and 4 to 6 ft
across the Central American waters. 

For the forecast, moderate SW swell across the equatorial waters
will subside by Sun night. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse in
the Papagayo region through the remainder of the weekend. 
Otherwise, tranquil conditions should prevail through Wed night. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad surface ridging prevails across the open waters north 
of the convergence zone. Gentle to moderate trades are noted 
north of the convergence zone, with gentle to moderate southerly 
flow south of the convergence zone. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in a mix 
of S and NW swell across the open waters.

For the forecast, little change in winds across the basin is 
anticipated and no tropical cyclone activity is expected through 
the next several days. The moderate SW swell across the 
equatorial waters will diminish by Sun. A moderate NW swell may 
reach our northern border on Mon and Tue, subsiding on Wed.

$$
ERA