000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181911
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Sep 18 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 91W and N of 05N, moving 
west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
03N to 07N between 86W and 91W, and from 10N to 12N between 90W
and 92W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 101W and N of 05N, moving 
west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is noted from 09N to 13N between 99W and 103W, and
from 05N to 09N between 101W and 106W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 114W/115W from 05N to 17N, 
moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 12N to 14N between 113W and 115W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 09N74W to
1009 mb low pressure near 09N77W to 10N95W to 08N106W to 1013 mb
low pressure near 13N133W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate and 
isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 09N between 77W
and 83W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 11N
between 108W and 112W, and from 09N to 16N between 128W and 139W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Broad surface ridging extends across the waters west of Baja 
California with moderate to fresh winds there. Light to gentle
winds are noted elsewhere offshore of Mexico. Seas are mainly in
the 4 to 6 ft range in a mixed of S and NW swell, except 2 to 4
ft in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, surface ridging west of California will 
promote moderate to fresh NW winds along the west coast of Baja 
California this weekend. NW swell will build seas west of Baja 
California Norte Mon night through Tue night. A Gulf of 
Tehuantepec gap wind event should begin Tue night and may bring 
near-gale conditions Wed through Thu night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh offshore winds are in the Papagayo region.
Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere north of 04N, with
moderate S-SW winds south of 04N. A SW swell is promoting seas in
the 5 to 7 ft range across the equatorial waters and 4 to 6 ft
across the Central American waters. 

For the forecast, moderate SW swell across the equatorial waters
will subside by Sun night. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse in
the Papagayo region through the remainder of the weekend. 
Otherwise, tranquil conditions should prevail through Wed night. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface trough is noted from 30N119W to 26N124W. Another
surface trough is noted from 20N123W to 14N126W. Otherwise,
broad surface ridging prevails across the open waters north of
the convergence zone. Gentle to moderate trades are noted north
of the convergence zone, with gentle to moderate southerly flow
south of the convergence zone. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in a mix of S
and NW swell across the open waters.

For the forecast, little change in winds across the basin is 
anticipated and no tropical cyclone activity is expected through 
the next several days. The moderate SW swell across the 
equatorial waters will diminish by Sun. A moderate NW swell may 
reach our northern border on Mon and Tue, subsiding Wed.

$$
Lewitsky